Despite a year where Democrats anticipate significant electoral victories, their stronghold in California presents an unforeseen challenge.
While the Democratic party feels optimistic about their chances in swing states and even traditionally Republican areas, California’s unique “top-two” primary system has opened up a surprising scenario. In November, voters might find themselves choosing between two Republican candidates to replace Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom. This could happen if the large pool of eight prominent Democratic contenders splits the vote sufficiently, allowing the top two Republican candidates to secure the leading primary spots in June and progress to the general election.
A majority of California Democrats are still fairly confident that one of their candidates will gather enough support to prevent such an outcome, especially in a state where Democrats typically secure around 60% of the general election votes. Paul Mitchell, a prominent Democratic data analyst, has developed a website that conducts thousands of simulations to predict primary results; he currently estimates the likelihood of Democrats being excluded from the general election at slightly less than 20%.
However, the potential for Democrats to be excluded from the general election is significant enough to prompt greater calls for intervention from party leadership and a re-evaluation of the top-two primary system.
To date, Democratic officials’ efforts have been limited to the state party chair Rusty Hicks urging low-polling candidates to withdraw. Yet, numerous party strategists contend that for a Democratic candidate to secure a top-two spot, endorsements from key figures like Governor Newsom, Senator Alex Padilla, and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will be essential.
“Voters are looking for direction,” stated Garry South, a seasoned Democratic strategist. “They require a clear signal from influential figures – primarily Pelosi, Newsom, and Alex Padilla – indicating which candidates warrant serious consideration and ultimately their vote. Otherwise, in my view, the situation will remain unclear.”
The current disarray in California’s gubernatorial primary stems from a combination of the top-two system’s design and the comparatively less robust Democratic candidate pool.
The top-two system stipulates that all candidates – including those from major parties, independents, and third parties – compete in a single primary election, with the two highest vote-getters advancing to the general election.
Democrats’ apprehension about reaching the general election stage is largely due to the absence of a clear frontrunner among their candidates. In contrast, since voters adopted the top-two system via a 2010 ballot initiative, Democrats had obvious figures to rally behind in previous gubernatorial primaries: Governor Jerry Brown in 2014, then-Lt. Governor Newsom in 2018, and Newsom again during his 2022 re-election bid.
However, this year, several prominent Democrats opted not to enter the race, notably Senator Alex Padilla (who also previously served as secretary of state) and former Vice President Kamala Harris. Even Lieutenant Governor Eleni Kounalakis, while not possessing the same political stature as Newsom in 2018, decided to pursue the state treasurer position instead.
Initially, former US Representative Katie Porter, an Orange County progressive economist akin to Senator Elizabeth Warren, emerged as the frontrunner. Xavier Becerra, former state attorney general and current Biden administration Health and Human Services secretary, was considered her main competitor. Nevertheless, Porter’s support faltered last October following the release of videos showing her chastising both a news reporter and members of her own staff.
Porter’s decline in standing prompted three additional Democrats to join the race: US Representative Eric Swalwell from a Bay Area district, billionaire Tom Steyer, and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, who is campaigning as a critic of Newsom and positioning himself as the most moderate option. They entered a field that already included former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond, and former State Controller Betty Yee, all of whom have consistently polled in the low single digits.
The abundance of choices has fragmented the electorate, leading to a crowded and chaotic contest. According to the most recent public polling conducted by the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California and the UC Berkeley Citrin Center for Public Opinion Research, Republican Steve Hilton, a British émigré and former Fox News host, currently leads a Democratic-heavy field. No single candidate achieves more than 20% support in either poll; Hilton holds a slight lead in both surveys, while Porter, Swalwell, Steyer, and Chad Bianco—the Republican sheriff of Riverside County—are clustered closely behind him, each with support just exceeding ten percent.
“Given the relatively late entry of (Swalwell, Steyer, and Mahan) into the race, it’s exceedingly difficult to identify any Democratic candidate – or Republican, for that matter – with a distinct advantage or a clearly defined base of support,” remarked Mark Baldassare, statewide survey director at the PPIC.
Breaking through in California proves exceptionally challenging, even for the most skilled candidates. Establishing name recognition, let alone building lasting support, among the often-distracted voters of the nation’s largest state typically demands massive television advertising budgets. Aside from Steyer – a self-financing billionaire whose pervasive TV commercials might now be causing more voter fatigue than actual support – none of the other Democratic candidates have accumulated sufficient funds for a substantial advertising campaign (though many anticipate Mahan’s Silicon Valley backing will eventually enable him to outspend all Democrats except Steyer).
A strong indicator of how little impact the Democratic candidates have made is the indistinct nature of their support. Polling data shows Porter garnering slightly more backing from highly liberal voters, while Swalwell performs marginally better in his Bay Area home district and among older Democrats—a demographic that likely consumes more cable news, where he often appears as a consistent critic of Trump.
However, beyond these minor trends, the usual demographic divisions seen in a Democratic primary are absent. Mitchell’s data indicates that women typically account for almost three-fifths of votes in California Democratic primaries, yet the PPIC polling reveals that the three leading Democrats—Porter, Swalwell, and Steyer—receive similarly limited support from both women and men. Latinos are expected to cast roughly a quarter of the Democratic vote, but PPIC polling shows no Democrat (even the two Latino candidates, Becerra and Villaraigosa) securing more than one in ten of their votes.
Taken together, this suggests that even the highest-polling Democrats largely lack clear definition and a natural constituency to target for expanding their support. “No one here truly has their own distinct path,” noted South.
Across the state, many analysts believe Swalwell holds the greatest potential among Democrats to break away from the pack. He has received an endorsement from Senator Adam Schiff, and several prominent figures linked to Newsom have joined his campaign. Notably, veteran consultant Ace Smith, a key strategist for Newsom, is managing an independent expenditure committee backing Swalwell.
Furthermore, Swalwell has garnered a series of significant labor endorsements, including those from the influential Service Employees International Union and the California Teachers Association. “There was genuine enthusiasm that we might unify working-class individuals and help a candidate succeed,” explained David Goldberg, president of the 310,000-member CTA, which officially endorsed Swalwell last week.
Nevertheless, other major unions have thrown their support behind Porter (like the California Teamsters and a local United Auto Workers affiliate) or Steyer (representing nurses and domestic workers). Meanwhile, the state AFL-CIO divided its endorsement among the top three candidates and Villaraigosa—a move many interpret as essentially no endorsement at all.
While Swalwell might have the most room for growth, rival campaigns point to his notable weaknesses, including ethics concerns related to an AI company he founded, criticism regarding his high number of missed votes, and threats from Trump’s FBI Director Kash Patel to disclose decade-old investigative documents concerning Swalwell’s interactions with a female Chinese intelligence agent.
Toward the end of last week, Steyer launched his initial negative television advertisement targeting Swalwell, and many observers of the race anticipate he will eventually aim at Porter as well. His primary path to securing a top-two position may involve diminishing Porter and Swalwell, effectively positioning himself as the sole remaining prominent Democrat.
“Should Steyer wield his limitless financial resources to target Swalwell and Porter, I believe he could inflict significant damage upon them,” remarked Republican strategist Rob Stutzman, a sentiment shared by many Democrats. (Conversely, business and labor housing groups recently formed a committee to broadcast ads attacking Steyer.)
A full-scale offensive by Steyer against Porter and Swalwell constitutes one element of a ‘nightmare scenario’ that has several Democrats on edge. The second part involves San Jose Mayor Mahan, who benefits from robust financial support from Silicon Valley, simultaneously investing heavily enough to push his poll numbers into double digits.
Mitchell, the Democratic strategist, predicts that if four Democratic candidates remain clustered with low-double-digit support, the risk of Democrats being excluded from the general election would significantly increase—from approximately 20% to around 40%. Other Democrats, however, perceive the current and future risk as even greater.
Despite the Democratic infighting, Republicans would still need a precise sequence of events to secure both top primary positions. Most analysts concur that Republicans will likely garner between 34% and 38% of the total primary vote, with a small fraction possibly going to minor GOP contenders. Even if Hilton and Bianco were to divide the Republican share perfectly, the highest each could realistically achieve would be around 18-19% of the total vote.
Consequently, “My intuition tells me that at least one Democrat needs to reach 20%,” Mitchell stated. “At 20%, it’s mathematically impossible for them to be excluded from the general election, because both Republicans won’t simultaneously reach 21%. There simply aren’t enough Republican voters for that.”
Smith, the Newsom strategist backing Swalwell, anticipates that as the primary nears, Democratic voters will naturally coalesce around the leading candidates. “Voters are intelligent, and once they recognize they’re casting a ballot for someone with no viable path, they typically gravitate towards a candidate who does have a chance,” he observed. “That inherent selection process always plays out.”
However, other Democrats remain apprehensive, fearing that voters will not sufficiently consolidate on their own without more decisive signals from party leaders like Pelosi, Padilla, and Newsom.
While Newsom has refrained from endorsing any candidate, a Republican governor in California would cast a significant shadow over his potential 2028 presidential campaign. Republicans and conservative media would undoubtedly portray it as evidence of the state rejecting his leadership. Furthermore, a GOP governor would, in practical terms, likely seize every chance to uncover damaging information about Newsom’s past record. Even if a Republican were to win, their tenure might be brief, as Democrats have universally indicated they would swiftly pursue a recall effort in 2027; yet, simply preventing the initial embarrassment of a Republican victory could ultimately compel Newsom to choose a preferred candidate in the primary.
Campaign strategists for various Democratic candidates suggested that an endorsement from former President Barack Obama would be the most impactful. However, neither California nor national Democrats closely monitoring the race have seen any sign that he intends to intervene. Moreover, some operatives are concerned that if the Democratic vote remains fractured among numerous candidates, even the most high-profile endorsements might not guarantee a Democrat a spot in the top two.
In 2010, California voters passed the top-two primary system, roughly concurrent with their decision to shift the power of drawing state legislative (2008) and congressional districts (2010) to an independent commission.
Last November, with Newsom’s support, Proposition 50 passed overwhelmingly, allowing the state to temporarily circumvent that commission to establish up to five additional Democratic-leaning US House seats. The top-two primary system may be the next reform subject to re-evaluation.
When the system was introduced in 2010, outgoing Republican Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, its main proponent, asserted that the top-two primary would diminish polarization and foster greater centrist collaboration.
While it hasn’t entirely dashed those aspirations, its benefits have emerged alongside unforeseen challenges, according to Christian Grose, a University of Southern California political scientist who has researched the reform. (Grose recently faced controversy when a debate qualifying formula he devised for a gubernatorial debate excluded all low-polling candidates of color, leading to the debate’s cancellation.) Regarding its influence on general elections, “it’s functioning as expected,” Grose noted, but “there are many unanticipated consequences in the primary phase that reformers did not foresee.”
Grose indicated that the system’s advantages have been most apparent in state legislative and congressional elections within deeply Republican or Democratic districts. In these cases, it’s common for two Republicans or two Democrats to proceed to the general election, motivating one candidate to broaden their appeal by attracting voters from the minority party in that area. “When two candidates from the same party are competing, there’s an incentive to adopt more centrist positions,” Grose explained.
Stutzman, the GOP consultant, concurred, stating, “The business community would largely agree that this system has been quite effective, particularly in secure Democratic legislative districts where we’ve seen Democrat-versus-Democrat races, leading to a focus on centrist policies.”
However, in primary elections, the top-two system has largely not succeeded in promoting moderate candidates or encouraging contenders to build cross-party alliances, contrary to the hopes of its original sponsors. In reality, Republicans and Democrats typically conduct their own distinct primaries under a single umbrella, appealing almost exclusively to their respective party bases. Candidates have also discovered how to manipulate the process to lessen competition—for instance, when Newsom in 2018 and Schiff in 2024 invested funds to help a Republican advance to the general election, thereby avoiding a potentially tougher contest against a fellow Democrat.
“The top-two system was founded on the mistaken belief that partisanship arose from separate Democratic and Republican primaries, rather than from how people fundamentally approach elections,” Mitchell asserted. “Ultimately, Democrats don’t switch to vote for Republicans, and Republicans don’t switch to vote for Democrats. What it has primarily led to is these strategic maneuvers.”
Any Democratic candidate who advances to the general election would be overwhelmingly favored against a Republican, particularly given Trump’s exceptionally low approval ratings in the state. This implies that the only viable path for a Republican to succeed Newsom is if Democrats fail to coalesce sufficiently to boost one of their candidates to at least 20% of the primary vote. While most Democrats still believe they will manage to circumvent this outcome, a growing number are becoming uneasy each week, unable to articulate precisely how this will occur.
This story has been updated.