Get ready for the third playoff clash between the Nuggets and Timberwolves.
This emerging Western Conference rivalry adds another chapter as Denver and Minnesota face off in the postseason for the third occasion in four years. Denver, having triumphed in their final 12 games, holds homecourt advantage over a Minnesota squad that concluded the regular season with a shaky 9-10 performance.
Denver overcame Minnesota in five games during the 2023 playoff’s opening round, yet the Timberwolves retaliated in the 2024 semifinals, claiming victory in a seven-game series.
During the current season, Denver (54-28) secured three of four contests against Minnesota (49-33), notably an overtime thriller on Christmas Day where Nikola Jokić delivered an astounding triple-double of 56 points, 16 rebounds, and 15 assists, complemented by Anthony Edwards’ 44 points.
Beyond the court, their histories are intertwined. Tim Connelly, now the Timberwolves’ president of basketball operations, initially built the Nuggets’ core. This season, Denver’s front office saw Jon Wallace rejoin after three years with Connelly in Minnesota. Furthermore, Nuggets head coach David Adelman previously worked as an assistant in Minnesota under his father, Rick.
As my colleague Jon Krawczynski aptly put it: Every epic rivalry merits a trilogy. So, let the games begin.
— Jason Quick
What is the biggest storyline for my team headed into the playoffs?
Jon Krawczynski, Timberwolves beat writer: Do the Timberwolves have a switch to flip? Following two consecutive Western Conference Finals appearances and with everyone returning except Nickeil Alexander-Walker, the Timberwolves discussed taking the ultimate step to the NBA Finals during training camp.
I had anticipated seeing a highly motivated, focused group throughout the regular season—one eager to atone for a 4-1 annihilation by the Thunder last May. Instead, what we observed was largely a complacent team all season long, seemingly treating the 82 games as beneath their ambitions.
The question they must answer in this series is whether they possess the ability to activate their true potential, or if they are a team on the decline?
Anthony Edwards will need to perform at his peak two-way ability, having neglected defense on too many nights during the regular season. He has consistently elevated his game in the playoffs and should enter the postseason as healthy as he’s been in weeks, thanks to some rest for an ailing right knee.
Julius Randle conquered many of his past playoff struggles last season and will be healthy and well-rested, as will Jaden McDaniels, who missed six games due to a bone bruise in his left knee.
The Wolves believe they possess the talent to defeat any opponent. At times this season, they may have over-relied on that belief. Now, it’s time to discover what they are truly capable of.
Anthony Edwards will need to be at his best against Nikola Jokić and the Nuggets. (Jamie Schwaberow/Getty Images)
Jason Quick, covering the Nuggets: Can the Nuggets maintain consistent defense?
While the Nuggets boast the NBA’s top offense, their defense ranks in the bottom third of the league. However, during their 12-game winning streak to conclude the season, Denver coach David Adelman credited the Nuggets’ defense for defining that successful run.
“We saw a defensive turnaround at various points in all these games, meaning we’ve been inconsistent with it throughout the year,” Adelman noted. “Eventually, you need to buckle down and defend, and that creates opportunities for what we excel at… fastbreak points.”
A critical element in the Nuggets’ defensive strategy will be the availability of one of their premier perimeter defenders, wing Peyton Watson, who has been hampered by hamstring injuries this season. Watson has been sidelined since April 1, when he re-aggravated his right hamstring. The same injury caused him to miss 19 games earlier in the year. Watson has resumed on-court workouts, but the Nuggets have yet to announce if, or when, his return is expected.
Who or what is the biggest X-factor for my team?
Krawczynski: Ayo Dosunmu.
The midseason acquisition has proven to be everything the Wolves had hoped for and more. Before his arrival from Chicago, the team suffered from a severe lack of ball-handlers and shot creators. Dosunmu stepped in, instantly providing capable handling and becoming one of the team’s most effective downhill scorers.
Dosunmu’s knack for getting out in transition has injected significant energy into the offense. His perimeter defense, though not quite on par with Nickeil Alexander-Walker’s, has been a notable improvement. Playing for a contract this summer and finally on a competitive team after five years in Chicago, his hunger has been a vital asset for a Wolves squad that often appeared complacent.
Since joining the Timberwolves, Dosunmu is averaging 14.1 points, 4.2 rebounds, and shooting 41 percent from beyond the arc. The Wolves will require all of that driving force and more to provide Anthony Edwards with the scoring support he’ll need against Denver’s formidable offense.
Quick: Tim Hardaway Jr.
There’s something about Minneapolis that seems to bring out the very best in Hardaway.
In the initial two matchups this season, both held in Minneapolis, Hardaway sparked comebacks from halftime deficits with explosive third-quarter performances. In the season’s third game, Hardaway sank five-of-five from 3-point range in the third quarter, helping to transform a 65-57 halftime deficit into a 127-114 victory. Then, in the second encounter, Hardaway tallied 23 points, with 13 of those coming in the third quarter, reversing a 65-60 deficit and leading Denver to a 123-112 win.
If Minneapolis fans feel a sense of déjà vu, they’re right. During his college career at Michigan, he delivered two memorable showings at Williams Arena—hitting four 3-pointers in the first five minutes en route to 22 points as a freshman, followed by a 21-point game in No. 5 Michigan’s win over No. 9 Gophers in 2013.
Over his 13-year career, Hardaway has averaged 16.6 points against Minnesota, his highest average against any team. This year, he averaged 19.8 points while shooting 61 percent from the field and an impressive 55.6 percent from 3-point range (15-of-27).
“I think it’s just Big Ten country,” Hardaway remarked. “I mean, even when I was with Michigan, we played at The Barn and we had some of our best games there. For me, it’s just the city itself, the atmosphere, the energy, the arena. It feels good there.”
What is the Achilles heel or biggest concern for my team?
Krawczynski: Defensive rebounding.
The Timberwolves rank 19th in the league in defensive rebounding percentage. Their inability to conclude defensive possessions consistently means they frequently grant opponents multiple scoring opportunities. They absolutely cannot afford to do this against the Nuggets, who will capitalize with kick-out 3-pointers if Jokić and Aaron Gordon dominate the offensive glass.
Denver is only 24th in offensive rebounding percentage, but this offers little comfort to the Timberwolves. At their worst, they commit turnovers and are overwhelmed on the offensive glass, losing the possession battle and getting run off the court.
To overcome the Nuggets, particularly in their home arena, the Wolves must protect the ball and seal possessions after the first shot. They are an exceptionally good defensive team in the halfcourt against initial attempts. It’s after that strong first contest when they encounter significant challenges.
Quick: Rim protection.
Adelman emphasized that the Nuggets’ on-ball defense will be crucial, as the team’s primary weakness is its ability to defend at the rim. The Nuggets’ centers—Nikola Jokić and Jonas Valančiūnas—lack vertical athleticism, and the team’s best jumpers—Watson, Spencer Jones, and Gordon—are either injured or had their minutes managed towards season’s end.
“Most of our problems typically arise when whoever is defending the ball gets beaten,” Adelman stated. “We understand that our rim protection isn’t stellar. We currently don’t have great size with Peyton out, Spence out, and Aaron on a minutes restriction.”
This places significant scrutiny on the defense of perimeter players Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, and Cam Johnson, and their capacity to thwart Anthony Edwards’ aggressive drives.
“When you’re beaten off the dribble, we’re then forced into rotations, and at that point, we have a traditional true center who isn’t built for those kinds of rotations.”
Biggest reason for optimism for my team?
Krawczynski: They are in their healthiest state in over a month. Edwards missed 10 of 12 games late in the season with a troublesome right knee, but all indications suggest he will be ready to perform now that the playoffs have arrived. McDaniels is fully recovered from a bone bruise in his left knee, Naz Reid’s nagging shoulder injury seems to be improving, and both Gobert and Julius Randle received much-needed rest in the final three games after securing the sixth seed.
They also benefit from a full week off to prepare for the playoffs, avoiding participation in the Play-In Tournament. In each of the last two seasons, the Wolves coaching staff has utilized this crucial week to ready the team for their first-round opponent. This preparation resulted in a 4-0 sweep of Phoenix in 2024 and a 4-1 handling of the Lakers last year.
Quick: The Nuggets prioritized being fresh for the playoffs all season, and they will be largely rested thanks to sitting most of their starters for the final two games. Furthermore, the end-of-season schedule worked in the Nuggets’ favor—they had only three road games over the last month, quick trips to Phoenix, Utah, and San Antonio—allowing them to re-strategize and recuperate at home.
Series Prediction
Krawczynski: Timberwolves in 7. They will enter this series as the definitive underdog, and rightly so. It has been an inconsistent regular season that failed to meet their high expectations. However, they are healthy and well-rested… and they possess Anthony Edwards, a player Denver has historically struggled to contain. Most crucially, they believe they can defeat the Nuggets because they’ve accomplished it before. I anticipate this series will be an absolute battle royale between two teams that have clashed extensively over the past four years. A playoff rubber match. I can’t wait.
Quick: Nuggets in 6. Why? Nikola Jokić.
The Wolves have not demonstrated an ability to stop the world’s best player. In the first game this season, he posted 25 points, 19 rebounds, and 10 assists. The second game: 27-12-11. Third game: a staggering 56-16-15 (!!!). And the fourth game: 35-13-9. To complement Jokić, Murray has delivered games of 43 and 35 points, and the only time Minnesota defeated Denver this season, Gordon was absent due to injury.