Today’s Leading Home Run Selections Briefly Reviewed
- Gunnar Henderson (+470): Performing on his home turf in a favorable matchup against a right-handed pitcher
- Brandon Lowe (+540): Excelling in his optimal split and currently in exceptional form
- Will Smith (+470): Facing a left-hander at his home stadium
In the vast world of sports, few moments rival the sheer thrill of a long ball leaving the park.
This excitement extends directly to the prop betting market, where every solid crack of the bat can send our anticipation soaring.
Leveraging our comprehensive MLB projections, which home run prop bets present the most compelling opportunities for today’s MLB slate?
MLB odds are provided by FanDuel Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day following the publication of this article. All statistical data is sourced from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless explicitly stated otherwise.
Top Home Run Prop Bets for Today
Home Run Pick: Gunnar Henderson to Launch a Home Run (+470)
Diamondbacks at Orioles, 6:36 p.m. ET
With Ryne Nelson taking the mound for the Arizona Diamondbacks today, my focus turns to Gunnar Henderson.
Nelson has a career road fly-ball rate of 42.4%, a statistic that aligns perfectly with Henderson’s strengths in this split.
Last season, Henderson showcased formidable power against right-handers at home, boasting a .394 wOBA and an impressive 43.6% hard-hit rate. Of his 17 home runs last year, 10 were hit in Baltimore.
Currently sporting a .403 wOBA this season, Henderson is well-positioned to sustain his strong performance in today’s favorable matchup.
Home Run Pick: Brandon Lowe to Hit a Home Run (+540)
Nationals at Pirates, 6:41 p.m. ET
Brandon Lowe has kicked off his tenure with the Pittsburgh Pirates in stellar fashion, recording a .422 wOBA and five dingers across 59 plate appearances.
Lowe’s best performances consistently come against right-handed pitchers, and he’s slated to face righty Cade Cavalli today.
In the early stages of this season, Lowe has been devastating against right-handers, achieving a .578 wOBA and a 43.5% hard-hit rate – with all five of his home runs coming in this particular split.
Cavalli presents a good target despite his seemingly low 2.51 ERA. His 5.14 SIERA this season suggests regression is due, and he allowed six home runs across five road starts last year.
After Cavalli exits the game, Lowe will encounter a Washington Nationals bullpen that currently ranks last in xFIP for 2026 (5.21).
Home Run Picks: Will Smith to Hit a Home Run (+470)
Mets at Dodgers, 10:11 p.m. ET
For the final game of the night, I’m particularly keen on Will Smith’s home run potential.
Smith will be up against David Peterson, the southpaw for the New York Mets. While Peterson is a competent pitcher, he doesn’t generate many swings and misses, demonstrated by his 20.3% K rate since the beginning of 2024. In 2025, he yielded a 38.6% hard-hit rate to right-handed batters – a notable increase from the 28.8% he allowed to lefties.
Smith performed significantly better at home last season (.414 wOBA) compared to on the road (.363), and he currently holds a .380 wOBA with two home runs thus far in 2026. This setup provides an excellent opportunity for him to record his third long ball of the season.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does a +210 line signify for an MLB home run prop bet?
A +210 line indicates that a $100 wager would yield $210 in profit if the chosen player hits a home run. You can stake any amount; for instance, a $10 bet at +210 odds would return $21 in profit. This number reflects the implied probability that the sportsbook assigns to the event, which is approximately 32% for +210 odds.
What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn’t start?
FanDuel’s policy stipulates that an HR prop bet will not be voided if the player registers at least one at-bat, even if entering as a pinch hitter. If the player does not record any at-bats, the bet is typically voided. Always consult FanDuel’s official terms before placing your wager.
Is it possible to combine home run props into a parlay on FanDuel?
Yes. FanDuel permits combining multiple HR props into a standard parlay, or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) for a single game. For the parlay to pay out, all selected legs must be successful.
Which factors are most crucial when betting on MLB home run props?
Key factors to consider include: the batter’s recent home run rate and raw power metrics, the opposing pitcher’s susceptibility to home runs, ballpark dimensions and specific park factors, prevailing wind conditions and game-time temperature, and the handedness splits for both the batter and pitcher.
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