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David Schoenfield
Multiple Authors
Some seasonal beginnings are sluggish, but the Seattle Mariners’ current performance goes beyond that, giving us a glimpse of what baseball in Yakutsk, Russia, might resemble.
Across their initial 13 matchups, the Mariners posted a dismal .184 batting average. Even with a club-record 2.62 ERA during this period, they find themselves at the foot of the league table with a disappointing 4-9 win-loss record. This week, they suffered a sweep in Texas, managing only three runs and 11 hits across three games, which ended with a poor two-hit shutout on Wednesday.
What’s particularly disheartening is the collective performance of their 2-3-4-5 hitters—Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez, Josh Naylor, and Randy Arozarena—who have accumulated a mere 26 hits from 195 at-bats (.133) and only one home run. Neither Rodriguez nor Naylor has recorded an extra-base hit, though Arozarena has managed three doubles. Rodriguez has tallied just seven hits for the season, and Naylor only five, accompanied by a WRC+ of minus-49.
Nonetheless, it is Raleigh who is attracting the most significant early criticism from this lineup, following his historic 60-home run campaign, but now enduring a difficult initial fortnight. He currently holds a .143 batting average with one home run and seven hits, alongside an astonishing 21 strikeouts, placing him second in MLB for this metric.
As the Mariners prepare to host their division rivals, the Houston Astros, in ESPN’s MLB Game of the Day this Saturday at 9:40 p.m. ET (streamable on the ESPN App), we’ll delve into Raleigh’s early season struggles and examine what’s happening with him and his fellow players.
An analysis of Raleigh’s plate appearances
I meticulously observed all 55 of Raleigh’s plate appearances leading up to Wednesday’s game, scrutinizing each of the 248 pitches thrown his way. In terms of enjoyment, this task fell somewhere between the delight of “consuming a potentially three-day-old hot dog at the old Kingdome” and the thrill of “witnessing Bobby Ayala conclude games in 1998.”
Below are observations from several noteworthy plate appearances:
Game 1/PA No. 2: Raleigh swung and missed at an 0-2 changeup delivered by Cleveland Guardians right-hander Tanner Bibee, resulting in a strikeout. It was an impeccably placed pitch, tailing away on the outside corner, so no discredit to Raleigh. However, the initial pitch of that encounter was a four-seam fastball directly over the plate, which Raleigh watched go by for a strike.
Game 1/PA No. 4: In the eighth inning, with his team down 5-4, Raleigh established a 2-0 count advantage but then misfired on a slider from Erik Sabrowski. He ultimately struck out looking on a 2-2 slider that was outside the strike zone (a call Raleigh arguably should have disputed).
Game 2/PA No. 1: Raleigh’s eight-pitch at-bat against Gavin Williams ended in a strikeout. He fouled off a 3-2 cutter that was centrally located but lacked significant movement, before swinging and missing at a sharp 3-2 cutter that jammed him inside.
Game 2/PA No. 4: He struck out looking against Peyton Pallette, marking his fourth strikeout of that game and seventh over two contests. The pitch was a curveball, significantly outside the zone—a call Raleigh, once more, should have contested.
It’s worth mentioning that Raleigh—along with Rodriguez, Naylor, and Arozarena—participated in this year’s World Baseball Classic. A significant amount of discussion revolved around Raleigh’s refusal to shake hands with Arozarena (and later Naylor in a separate game). Nevertheless, following Arozarena’s public apology for remarks he made regarding the incident in a postgame interview, it appeared all parties began the regular season amicably. With numerous crucial players dispersed among various WBC teams, the Mariners experienced a dismal spring training, finishing 11-19. Raleigh’s personal performance was also poor, as he struggled to an 8-for-32 record with one home run and 12 strikeouts, followed by an 0-for-9 showing in the WBC, which led to him being benched for Will Smith in Team USA’s last two games. Indeed, considering these circumstances, one can easily envision Seattle’s local sports radio dedicating roughly two hours daily to discussions about the WBC.
Game 5/PA No. 1: Entering as a pinch-hitter in a tied 1-1 game with two runners on base against the New York Yankees, Raleigh established a 2-0 count advantage against left-handed reliever Brent Headrick. However, he subsequently swung and missed at a slider that was well out of the strike zone and eventually struck out on a well-executed 2-2 splitter, low and away.
Game 6/PA No. 4: Having gone hitless in three at-bats against left-hander Max Fried, Raleigh once more encountered Headrick. The initial pitch was a 93-mph fastball, middle-away, which he swung through. He ultimately struck out swinging on an identical pitch.
A significant factor in Raleigh’s extraordinary 2025 season was his enhanced performance against left-handed pitchers. He posted a .281/.351/.681 slash line with 22 home runs in 185 plate appearances versus lefties, a marked improvement from his .183 average against them in 2024. The two fastballs from Headrick were precisely the kind of centrally located pitches Raleigh consistently hammered last year, regardless of the pitcher’s handedness.
Consider his statistics when facing pitches in the vertical center of the strike zone, roughly at belt height:
2025: .290/.333/.695, with 26 home runs across 210 at-bats
2026: .105/.261/.263, with 1 home run in 19 at-bats
While acknowledging the extremely limited sample size, it’s clear he was connecting with these pitches in 2025. His contact rate on such offerings stood at 80.7% last season but has plummeted to only 67.6% thus far in 2026. Overall, his contact rate against pitches within the strike zone has fallen from 78.4% to 65.8%. Even in 2024, his in-zone contact rate was a higher 77.0%.
Raleigh shares some parallels with Bryce Harper in terms of his swing approach. Although both accumulate numerous walks, they also frequently swing and miss and pursue pitches outside the strike zone. Last season, Raleigh accumulated 97 walks despite a below-average chase rate, placing him in the 25th percentile. Yet, when pitchers erred, Raleigh typically capitalized powerfully. His declining in-zone contact rate is currently the primary worry. Among 187 qualified hitters to date, only Jose Caballero exhibits a lower in-zone contact rate than Raleigh (with Rodriguez ranked 181st).
Game 8/PA No. 3: Raleigh hit a fly ball to left field off Los Angeles Angels left-hander Reid Detmers on a 2-2 fastball, perfectly situated up and inside—a precisely located four-seamer. The astonishing part: boasting an exit velocity of 100.7 mph, this marked Raleigh’s first hard-hit ball (defined as 95 mph or higher) of the season, occurring in his 28th at-bat.
Game 9/PA No. 1: Against Angels starter Jack Kochanowicz, Raleigh launched a fly ball towards the right-field wall at Angel Stadium, only to be denied a home run by Jo Adell’s spectacular catch (one of three such plays Adell made in that game).
In the previous season, that ball might have carried an additional three feet. Were this game played in June, it would likely have been a home run. Furthermore, the Mariners’ initial seven games being in Seattle—which is notoriously one of the most challenging ballparks for hitters in April—has not been advantageous. They also played two evening games in Anaheim, another difficult hitting environment, and three games in Texas, where Globe Life Field functioned as the premier pitcher’s park last year.
Game 9/PA No. 3: In his third encounter with Kochanowicz, Raleigh quickly fell behind after a debatable checked-swing strike call on the first pitch, subsequently fouling off four more pitches, including two four-seamers (one high, one low and inside). He ultimately struck out on a 96-mph 3-2 four-seamer that was well above and outside the strike zone—a pitch with a 0% chance of being a strike, precisely the type a struggling batter might swing at.
Game 11/PA No. 1: In the first inning, Texas right-hander Jacob deGrom attempted to sneak a 3-2 fastball past Raleigh. However, the pitch was squarely in the middle of the strike zone, and Raleigh powerfully drove it to right field for his inaugural home run. Of Raleigh’s seven hits in 2026, this is the sole one categorized as a hard-hit ball.
Game 12/PA No. 2: Raleigh swung at Nathan Eovaldi’s first-pitch cutter, a pitch left over the plate, but he was late on it and popped up to shallow left field. In his subsequent at-bat against Eovaldi, he also swung at the first pitch, fouling it off before eventually recording a bloop single.
Aggressively attacking the first pitch proved effective for Raleigh last year. He boasted a .427 batting average with 17 home runs across 82 at-bats when making contact with the initial offering. He also ranked among the most assertive first-pitch swingers, holding the 13th-highest first-pitch swing percentage among qualified batters. (Notably, Harper exhibited the second-highest percentage, another point of resemblance.)
This season? Raleigh has managed only one hit in seven attempts when putting the first pitch in play.
Game 13/PA No. 4: Raleigh flied out on a 3-2 cutter from Cole Winn, a pitch perfectly placed on the high outside corner. A positive indicator for Raleigh: This particular ball was struck at 92 mph, and he had registered two other hard-hit outs earlier in the game. Perhaps he is beginning to make better contact.
Implications of this early season performance for the Mariners
It’s striking to witness a team’s top batters simultaneously endure such difficulties. And to be unequivocal: this isn’t merely unfortunate luck on batted balls or anything of that nature. Their performance has genuinely been poor. Observing Raleigh’s 55 plate appearances felt akin to watching an overwhelmed rookie fresh from Single-A. Raleigh’s swing-and-miss percentage against four-seamers and two-seamers has soared from 25.2% last season to 50%. An inability to hit a fastball fundamentally compromises a batter’s chances. Rodriguez has shown a similar struggle with fastballs, with his miss rate climbing to 32.8% from 21.6% last year.
And even when they have connected? The contact has lacked authority. Consider these hard-hit rates across Seattle’s initial 13 games this season versus last season:
Mariners in 2025: 42.8% (ranking 4th in MLB)
Mariners in 2026: 34.2% (ranking 29th in MLB)
Raleigh in 2025: 49.6%
Raleigh in 2026: 21.4%
Rodriguez in 2025: 48.0%
Rodriguez in 2026: 36.4%
Naylor in 2025: 41.9%
Naylor in 2026: 35.0%
Arozarena in 2025: 50.6%
Arozarena in 2026: 44.1%
Despite hitting 60 home runs last year, Raleigh demonstrated a streaky hitting pattern, even commencing the season sluggishly with a .184 average and two homers through his initial 13 games. He experienced other periods of one home run in 11 games, one in 10 games, and three distinct stretches of one in nine games. When he connected for home runs, they often occurred in clusters, highlighted by an impressive 11 games with two homers.
Rodriguez, conversely, has been famously slow to start his seasons, boasting a career first-half OPS of .726 against a second-half OPS of .902. His career OPS in August is notably 300 points superior to his performance in April.
While these facts don’t diminish the severity of the poor start, they might suggest that it’s premature to panic. However, for a franchise that narrowly missed playoff berths by just one win in both 2023 and 2024, this sluggish beginning could potentially have significant consequences by September.