Our esteemed football wagering specialist, Jones Knows, shares his detailed analysis for the upcoming weekend fixtures, concluding with a carefully selected 78/1 best bet treble.
Aston Villa vs Sunderland, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
Those familiar with our analyses will appreciate how valuable insights into the fouls market can uncover significant betting opportunities. The resurgence of traditional, physically dominant centre-forwards has certainly shifted the dynamics of foul analysis, leading to central defenders being fouled more frequently due to the aggressive play of these powerful strikers.
Brian Brobbey perfectly embodies this style of play.
His performance against Spurs last weekend was relentless, contributing to eight foul incidents. His upcoming clash with Ezri Konsa presents a prime opportunity for a fouls-related wager. Konsa is exceptionally adept at drawing fouls, demonstrating a skill for manipulating attackers into giving away free-kicks. He has averaged 1.5 fouls won per home game this season, and I anticipate him skillfully outmaneuvering Brobbey to win multiple fouls. Sky Bet offers Konsa at 4/5 to win two or more fouls.
MATCH FORECAST: 2-1
Everton vs Liverpool, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
Betting against Liverpool scoring in the first half of their away matches continues to be a lucrative strategy. The Reds have managed to net only three first-half goals in their last 17 away fixtures, with Arne Slot’s often cautious and methodical approach sometimes leading to unexciting play. If you’ve been consistent in backing Liverpool to draw a blank in the first half of their away games, you would have been successful in 14 out of their last 17 outings.
When factoring in Everton’s solid defensive record, this proposition becomes even more compelling. The Toffees have maintained a first-half clean sheet in 10 of their 16 home matches and have not conceded a goal in the first half of their last four home games. This trend is priced at 5/6 with Sky Bet to continue.
MATCH FORECAST: 1-1
Nottingham Forest vs Burnley, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
Should any team battling relegation be granted their ideal opponent for the next match, Burnley at home would undoubtedly be a top choice. Their record of only one victory in their last 23 Premier League encounters speaks volumes about their current struggles. While they show flashes of competitiveness, they ultimately lack the decisive edge and fortitude required to convert performances into points.
This fixture represents a crucial opportunity for Forest to capitalize. Playing at home, with robust fan support, the stage is set for them to assert dominance. However, a high-scoring affair isn’t anticipated.
Forest typically do not overwhelm their adversaries. Even in favorable matchups, their victories are often rooted in solid defensive organization, tactical discipline, and opportune moments, rather than relentless offensive pressure. They’ve only managed two goals in their last seven home games. A single goal might just suffice here, making a Forest win combined with under 3.5 goals, priced at 6/5 with Sky Bet, a compelling option.
MATCH FORECAST: 1-0
Manchester City vs Arsenal, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports
This promises to be an epic encounter. In such circumstances, backing the less popular outcome can often be the wisest approach. I’m strongly favoring a draw, offered at 13/5 by Sky Bet.
Arsenal’s offensive struggles are evident, with only three goals scored in their last five matches, contrasting sharply with Manchester City’s recent three goals in just 17 minutes against Chelsea.
The Gunners’ attacking rhythm has completely faltered, and their forward line is currently in a significant slump.
A major contributing factor to this decline is the absence of both Martin Odegaard and Bukayo Saka. There’s a noticeable drop in Arsenal’s productivity when at least one of these key players is missing. Since the beginning of last season, Arsenal’s average goals per game decreases from 2.1 to 1.3 when both Saka and Odegaard are not starting. Similarly, their expected goals per game plummets from 1.9 to 1.3 in such scenarios.
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Jamie O’Hara gets into a debate with an Arsenal fan over full-time boos at the Emirates after Bournemouth defeat
Mikel Arteta would certainly be content with securing a draw in this fixture.
Arsenal
Arsenal must capitalize on their core strength: their elite defensive unit when not in possession. They should focus on stifling City’s attack, making it difficult for them to score, and earning set-pieces.
A draw will be their primary objective, and given the odds, I am confident in backing them to achieve it.
MATCH FORECAST: 1-1 | JONES KNOWS’ TOP PICK: Back the draw (13/5 with Sky Bet)
Sunday 19th April 4:00pm
Kick off 4:30pm
Crystal Palace vs West Ham, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
In some betting scenarios, the focus shifts away from the player being backed and towards the formidable challenge they are confronting.
This principle is highly applicable to Chris Richards’ situation. Should he feature for Crystal Palace, there’s a significant likelihood he will be tasked with marking Crysencio Summerville – a matchup few defenders find enjoyable for a full 90 minutes.
The West Ham winger has been a constant draw for fouls throughout the season, attracting more yellow cards from opposition players than anyone else in the Premier League (14). This statistic clearly indicates the challenging evening Richards could face.
Richards has already received bookings in two of his last three Premier League appearances, suggesting he’s operating on a knife-edge between assertive play and misjudged tackles. Combine this with the pressure of containing one of the league’s most elusive wide players, and the stage is perfectly set for him to receive another card, currently available at 9/2 with Sky Bet.
MATCH FORECAST: 1-2
Jones Knows’ Top Bet:
A 1-point treble on Ayden Heaven to be booked, Man City to draw with Arsenal & Chris Richards to be booked (78/1 with Sky Bet)