Paolo Banchero played a pivotal role in the Orlando Magic’s closing moments against the Phoenix Suns last Saturday.
As the Magic found themselves down by six points with three minutes remaining, Banchero stepped up, significantly impacting the game and helping to bring his team back. Despite converting just one shot during this crucial rally, its importance was undeniable.
Banchero transformed into the aggressive force the Magic anticipate him to be, receiving the ball around mid-court and driving directly to the basket. He muscled past Royce O’Neale, overcoming a late double-team to score, cutting the deficit to four. His contributions also included a block and an assist, leading Orlando to overtime.
During the extra period, he executed a step-through move to the hoop, extending the Magic’s lead to five points, and later, spun away from his defender in the post to level the score late in the initial overtime session.
Orlando’s key to success with Banchero in his 26-point, 14-rebound, 8-assist performance against Phoenix was consistently feeding him the ball in the low post and close to the rim. This strategy allowed Banchero to play aggressively, driving to the basket rather than relying on jump shots.
Despite discussions about Banchero’s inefficiency and tendency to settle for jump shots, he has predominantly scored near the rim this season, attempting more shots from the paint and close to the basket than ever before in his professional career.
However, there’s a crucial distinction: his season has been characterized by significantly poorer shooting efficiency in the paint, which accounts for a substantial portion of his difficulties this year.
Banchero’s performance has been inconsistent, especially during critical moments of games.
While Banchero did dominate certain segments of the game against the Suns, he notably missed a layup that would have given them the lead with 12.5 seconds remaining in regulation, and later failed to convert another potential game-winning baseline jumper with 24 seconds left in overtime. Given his role, he is expected to capitalize on such opportunities.
This indicates Banchero is on the cusp of a significant advancement, yet it also highlights how his current performance hinges on fine margins and specific skills the Magic rely on him to master.
Challenges Around the Basket
Paolo Banchero’s difficulties with jump shots are widely recognized. He has consistently had trouble converting mid-range attempts, a skill typically expected of star players to maintain defensive balance.
Critics keen to diminish Banchero’s standing have readily pointed to his subpar pull-up shooting statistics.
However, this season, Banchero is attempting considerably fewer mid-range jumpers than in previous years, converting 34.2 percent on 2.7 attempts per game, a stark contrast to last year’s 41.7 percent on 4.7 attempts.
Conversely, Banchero is increasingly focusing his offensive efforts in the vicinity of the basket.
Currently, Banchero is achieving a 65.7 percent success rate on 5.2 attempts per game from the restricted area. In the previous season, he recorded 66.1 percent on 5.3 attempts per game, and during his 2024 All-Star campaign, he shot 64.2 percent on 5.2 attempts per game.
This data indicates no significant change; Banchero continues to attack and shoot around the rim with consistent frequency. Notably, he converted all three of his attempts at the rim in Saturday’s defeat.
However, Banchero faced difficulties in other areas of the paint, sinking only 8 out of 18 shots, which largely mirrors his performance throughout the season.
This season, Banchero is achieving 39.1 percent on 4.3 field goal attempts per game from the paint outside the restricted area. In contrast, last year he shot 41.3 percent on 3.9 attempts per game, and in 2024, his average was 39.1 percent on 3.8 attempts per game.
While not a dramatic increase, it represents an upward trend. Should Banchero convert those short-range jumpers into layups more consistently, his overall shooting efficiency would see a significant boost.
However, Banchero has yet to make the crucial improvement needed in this particular zone. It appears to be all or nothing for him when attacking the basket, particularly given the frequency of his drives.
According to Second Spectrum data, Banchero is converting 43.8 percent of his shots (and averaging 0.8 assists) from a team-leading 12.8 drives per game this year. Last season, he shot 49.8 percent on 11.9 drives per game, while in 2024, his figures were 43.7 percent on 12.7 drives per game.
Banchero is employing the correct strategies by increasing his attacks on the basket and reducing his reliance on jump shots. However, his ability to finish effectively in the paint has declined, and combined with other areas of struggle, this has contributed to his perceived slump.
Glimmers of Progress?
Nonetheless, numerous indications of progress are emerging. Banchero is steadily delivering improved statistical performances.
Banchero’s current averages include 21.6 points per game and a 45.2 percent field goal percentage, identical to last year. He is hitting 31.6 percent from beyond the arc, albeit on a career-low 3.8 attempts per game. Furthermore, he’s earning 7.8 free throw attempts per game (though only getting four in Saturday’s defeat was a significant point of contention).
Despite ongoing discussions about his efficiency, Banchero has achieved a career-high true shooting percentage of 55.7 percent.
However, this can be considered an improvement in name only, as it remains one of the lowest true shooting percentages for players with a usage rate of at least 25 percent and averaging 25 minutes per game.
Yet, since January 1st, Banchero has elevated his game, posting 23.1 points per contest with impressive 46.2/39.5/78.3 shooting splits. His true shooting percentage during this period is 57.2 percent, ranking as the 15th lowest in the league among players meeting the 25 percent usage rate and 25 minutes per game criteria. Still, this figure surpasses those of prominent athletes such as Cade Cunningham, Pascal Siakam, and Jaylen Brown.
Additionally, since the start of January, Banchero has achieved a 61.6 percent shooting accuracy on 6.0 attempts per game from the restricted area. He continues to face challenges with jump shots, recording 36.8 percent on 4.1 attempts per game from the paint outside the restricted area.
However, Banchero is increasingly driving to the basket and converting those attempts with much greater efficacy, which appears to be the catalyst for this recent improvement.
Despite these gains, Banchero’s season still lacks a certain elusive quality. He must improve his consistency on even short-range jumpers, and determining when to attempt such shots and assert dominance in games continues to be a hurdle for him this season.
Nevertheless, the significant positive impact of his improved shooting efficiency near the rim is undeniable.