This year’s No. 10 seeds in the NCAA Tournament face a mixed bag of historical performance.
On the positive side, a No. 10 seed has triumphed over a No. 7 seed in every one of the last 17 tournaments. However, the path forward is challenging, as only two No. 10 seeds have advanced to the Sweet 16 in the previous eight tournaments.
Missouri, Santa Clara, Texas A&M, and UCF are the teams designated as No. 10 seeds this year, all aiming to progress beyond the opening weekend. Their immediate goal, however, is to navigate the first round successfully.
Ranking the Likeliest No. 7 vs. No. 10 Seed Upsets
Below, we analyze the pairings between this year’s No. 7 and No. 10 seeds, evaluating and ranking the potential upsets from the least probable to the most probable.
4. Saint Mary’s Likely to Prevail Over Texas A&M
Texas A&M’s basketball season mirrored its football counterpart last fall, with a promising start giving way to a late-season downturn. The Aggies (21-11) opened with a strong 17-4 record overall and 7-1 in SEC play but then stumbled, dropping seven of their final 11 games to barely secure a spot in the 68-team tournament.
The upcoming Thursday matchup promises a clash of opposing styles. A&M favors a fast-paced game, ranking 29th nationally in tempo (70.5 possessions per 40 minutes) and consequently scoring an impressive 87.7 points per game (9th in the nation). Saint Mary’s, conversely, plays at a much slower pace, ranking 298th (65.2 possessions per 40). Curiously, despite—or perhaps because of—their more deliberate approach, the Gaels boast a slightly more efficient offense, averaging 120.4 points per 100 possessions compared to the Aggies’ 119.7.
On paper, Saint Mary’s holds a significant edge in rebounding. According to KenPom, they are the 12th tallest team nationally and rank fourth in the country for rebounding margin (11.3 per game). Texas A&M, meanwhile, struggles on the boards, ranking 228th in Division I with a -0.2 rebound margin. This disparity in rebounding, combined with their tempo, allows Saint Mary’s to restrict opponents to a mere 64.6 points per game (7th nationally).
Furthermore, the Aggies are prone to fouling, ranking 325th nationally with 19.3 fouls per game. This tendency could be detrimental against the Gaels, who are the top free-throw shooting team in Division I (80.5%).
3. UCLA to Face Challenge from UCF
The UCF Knights (21-11) enter their first NCAA Tournament since 2019 with a modest 1-5 historical record in the event, yet they bring a resume bolstered by notable victories against teams like Kansas, Texas Tech, Texas A&M, and BYU. Propelled by dynamic point guard Themus Fulks, UCF prefers an uptempo game, averaging 69.2 possessions per 40 minutes (79th nationally). They will aim to dictate this pace against a UCLA squad that plays significantly slower, ranking 318th in possessions per 40 (64.7).
However, the Knights are not entering the tournament in peak form, having dropped four of their last five games, with their sole recent win being an overtime triumph at home against Cincinnati.
Conversely, the Bruins (23-11) have hit their stride, winning four of their last five contests and six of their past eight. This impressive run includes victories over strong opponents such as No. 8 Michigan State, No. 9 Nebraska, and No. 10 Illinois.
UCF’s prospects for an upset would significantly improve if UCLA’s leading scorers, Tyler Bilodeau (17.6 points per game) and Donovan Dent (13.5), were unable to recover from injuries that kept them out of last week’s Big Ten tournament. However, Dent has declared himself fully healthy, and Coach Mick Cronin anticipates Bilodeau’s return to practice this week, suggesting they might be available.
2. Santa Clara Poses Significant Threat to Kentucky
Could a team with a reported $22 million valuation fall in the first round to a program that hasn’t seen NCAA Tournament action since 1996? Such an outcome for Kentucky would surprisingly not be a major shock.
Coach Mark Pope’s second season with the Kentucky Wildcats (21-13) has been marked by inconsistency, leaning more towards disappointing for their passionate fanbase. A persistent issue for the Wildcats has been their perimeter shooting, as they convert only 34.1% of their three-point attempts, ranking 178th nationally.
Conversely, the Santa Clara Broncos (26-8) can draw confidence from their knack for forcing turnovers; their opponents average 14.1 turnovers per game, placing them 31st in the nation. This is particularly relevant given Kentucky’s struggles when committing 14 or more turnovers in a game this season, holding a 2-4 record in such instances.
While Christian Hammond leads Santa Clara in scoring with 15.8 points per game, the ultimate determinant of this game’s outcome will be the Broncos’ success in generating deflections and steals, and subsequently converting them into crucial points.
1. Missouri Favored to Upset Miami
The narrative of this game being played in St. Louis is bound to dominate pre-game discussions. Despite being the No. 10 seed against Miami’s No. 7, the Missouri Tigers (20-12) will essentially play on their home turf Friday night. This is a crucial factor, given Missouri’s impressive 15-3 home record this season, contrasted with their 5-9 performance in road or neutral-site contests. However, it’s worth noting that the Hurricanes have been strong away from home, boasting an 8-2 record in true road games.
Missouri’s versatile star, Mark Mitchell, has delivered an outstanding season, culminating in dominant performances recently. Possessing a 7-foot-1 wingspan, a formidable physique, and exceptional athleticism, Mitchell leads the team in scoring (18.3 points per game) while also contributing 5.3 rebounds and 3.6 assists. Over his last two outings, he has been particularly explosive, averaging 32.0 points with a 58.5% field goal percentage.
Despite Mitchell’s stellar play, the Tigers arrive at the tournament on a three-game losing streak.
On Friday, Mitchell and Missouri will face a Miami team that struggles with perimeter shooting. The Hurricanes are ranked 293rd nationally in 3-pointers made per game (6.6). In their most recent game, a significant 22-point loss to Virginia, they managed only 4-of-20 from beyond the arc.
Should the Tigers succeed in restricting Miami’s scoring in the paint, they stand a strong chance of delighting their local crowd with a victory.