Historically, over the last four decades, 12th seeds in the NCAA Tournament have achieved a 35.6% win rate, compiling a total record of 57-103.
A key reason for this trend is that the perceived disparity between these teams is often less significant than it seems. Typically, 5th seeds consist of respectable, yet underperforming, major-conference teams. Conversely, 12th seeds are frequently successful smaller-conference champions, entering the tournament on impressive winning streaks and brimming with momentum.
Last year, these dynamics were evident as 12th seeds split their opening-round games, going 2-2. Notable victories included McNeese State overcoming 5th seed Clemson 69–67, and Colorado State topping 5th seed Memphis 78–70. Will the 12th seeds in the 2026 NCAA Tournament replicate this level of triumph?
Anticipating No. 12 vs. No. 5 Seed Upsets
We’ll now analyze the current year’s No. 12 and No. 5 seed matchups, evaluating and ranking which potential upsets appear most probable. The following list progresses from the least to the most likely upset.
4. Northern Iowa Challenges St. John’s
Many basketball analysts, ourselves included, felt that the selection committee undervalued the Red Storm, who claimed both the Big East regular season and tournament championships, by assigning them a surprisingly low No. 5 seed. Consequently, we anticipate them entering the NCAA Tournament with heightened motivation, though a Rick Pitino-led squad is seldom lacking drive.
Northern Iowa, historically a frequent participant in the NCAA Tournament with four notable appearances in seven years, is making its return to the Big Dance for the first time since 2016. After finishing sixth in the Missouri Valley Conference, they secured their automatic bid by winning their conference tournament.
Although we foresee the Panthers staying competitive for a period, the Red Storm are expected to assert their dominance and ultimately distance themselves from a Northern Iowa team that struggles offensively (averaging 69.9 points per game).
3. Wisconsin to Prevail Against High Point
Wisconsin, a team that found its stride late in the season, concluded its regular play with an impressive 8-2 record in the formidable Big Ten. Their strong performance extended into the conference tournament, culminating in a narrow 68-65 semifinal defeat to regular-season champion Michigan, who subsequently secured a No. 1 NCAA Tournament seed.
The Badgers feature one of college basketball’s premier backcourts, with juniors Nick Boyd and John Blackwell collectively contributing almost 40 points per game. Their formidable frontcourt is anchored by the talented 7-foot center, Noah Winter, who averages 13.3 points and 8.6 rebounds each game.
High Point is a potent offensive force (averaging 90 ppg) and a seasoned team, having clinched both the Big South regular season and tournament titles. This 30-win squad boasts nine players logging at least 16 minutes per game. However, we anticipate that the significant increase in competitive intensity against the Badgers will bring High Point’s 14-game winning streak to a halt.
2. McNeese Poised to Upset Vanderbilt
McNeese’s guard, Larry Johnson, stands out as potentially the most impactful college basketball player bearing that surname since the legendary UNLV forward who led the Rebels to a national championship 36 years prior. This 6-4 freshman guard exhibits a physical game reminiscent of the former UNLV star, currently posting averages of 17.5 points and 5.5 rebounds.
The Southland champion Cowboys are entering the NCAA Tournament on a formidable 10-game winning streak, having won 14 of their last 15 contests. While the Vanderbilt Commodores, a talented yet inconsistent squad, showed promise with a late-season surge to the SEC title game, they face a significant challenge against a well-rounded McNeese team known for its strong play on both offense and defense and its confident approach.
1. Akron Favored to Upset Texas Tech
Texas Tech performed admirably right after star player JT Toppin suffered a season-ending injury, but their momentum faltered late in the season, resulting in three straight losses, notably a 75-53 defeat to Iowa State in their conference tournament.
With their key player sidelined, this Texas Tech team’s potential is understandably capped. They are also set to face an Akron squad that rides a 10-game winning streak, including the MAC Tournament championship, into the NCAA Tournament.
Akron boasts significant depth, with four starters scoring in double figures and eight players contributing at least 11.7 minutes per game. We anticipate the high-powered Zips (ranking 9th nationally with 88.4 ppg) could find their rhythm late in the game, ultimately overcoming a Texas Tech team that is not at full strength.