Miami (Ohio) is set to play Western Michigan away from home on Friday night. The RedHawks are aiming for a perfect 29-0 record, hoping to be the first college basketball team to conclude its regular season undefeated since Gonzaga in the 2020-21 season. Despite their impressive win-loss record, Miami’s spot in the NCAA Tournament is not yet guaranteed.
According to CBS Sports’ Bracketology, the RedHawks are currently projected as a No. 11 seed entering the weekend, primarily because they are expected to secure the MAC’s automatic bid. Should Miami lose any game before or during the MAC Tournament, and subsequently fail to win the conference tournament, their eligibility for an at-large bid would become highly uncertain.
With a robust No. 32 ranking in the crucial Wins Above Bubble (WAB) metric, Miami currently appears safe for an at-large berth. However, even a single defeat against a MAC opponent would significantly weaken Miami’s resume metrics. Lacking any Quad 1 victories and possessing only one Quad 2 win, the RedHawks face a precarious path as Selection Sunday approaches.
Bracketology Update: Michigan State’s victory at Purdue boosts Spartans in latest NCAA Tournament predictions
David Cobb
Their Friday matchup against Western Michigan is just one of more than a dozen games this weekend that could influence the NCAA Tournament bubble. Here’s a comprehensive overview of the bubble situation and the key bubble games to monitor as the weekend begins.
Last Four Teams In
First Four Teams Out
Next Four Teams Out
Explore the most recent bracket projections from the CBS Sports Bracketology model at the Bracketology hub
All times are Eastern Time
Bubble teams playing Friday
Miami (Ohio)
at Western Michigan | 6 p.m. (CBS Sports Network)
Status entering weekend: No. 11 seed (automatic qualifier)
Game classification: Quad 4
The RedHawks are on the verge of making history, needing just three more wins for an undefeated regular season. Their visit to Western Michigan represents the most manageable challenge remaining, yet as a Quad 4 game, it also poses the highest risk for a damaging loss. Despite a 28-0 start, Miami’s NCAA Tournament prospects aren’t entirely secure due to a weak schedule, featuring no Quad 1 games and only one Quad 2 game. There’s still a possibility of a worst-case scenario where a late-season slip-up and a MAC Tournament loss could leave them just outside the bubble.
Bubble teams playing Saturday
Seton Hall
at UConn | 12 p.m. (FS1)
Status entering weekend: First Four Out
Game classification: Quad 1
Seton Hall has significant ground to recover, and a road win against UConn would be a huge step. This would rank among the season’s top 10 victories for any college basketball team, providing compelling evidence to the selection committee of the Pirates’ merit. However, if Seton Hall cannot pull off this major upset, their at-large tournament hopes will likely be dashed.
VCU
vs. Fordham | 12:30 p.m. (USA)
Status entering weekend: First Four Out
Game classification: Quad 4
The Rams present an interesting case, with their average resume metrics hovering around the mid-40s. Generally, this places them in fringe at-large contention. Yet, they lack any victories over teams projected for an at-large bid and hold a mere 4-7 record across the top two quadrants. Playing Fordham offers no significant boost but allows VCU to regroup after a disappointing loss to Saint Louis more than a week ago.
Missouri
at Mississippi State | 1 p.m. (SEC Network)
Status entering weekend: No. 9 seed
Game classification: Quad 2
Missouri exemplifies why WAB should be favored over NET. Solely observing Missouri’s No. 58 NET ranking might suggest they have no place in the at-large conversation. However, with a very respectable No. 35 WAB ranking, Mizzou is actually in a solid position. Coming off their fifth Quad 1 win against Tennessee, Missouri would need a significant collapse down the stretch to miss the tournament.
Clemson
vs. Louisville | 2 p.m. (ESPN2)
Status entering weekend: No. 9 seed
Game classification: Quad 1
A streak of four consecutive losses has knocked Clemson out of the ACC title race and into bubble discussions. With a 10-7 record against Quad 1 and 2 opponents, the Tigers are currently in an acceptable position. Nevertheless, facing Louisville and then North Carolina (on the road Tuesday) makes for a tough schedule to get back on track. Clemson likely needs to win two of their final three regular-season games to feel confident heading into the ACC Tournament.
New Mexico
vs. San Diego State | 2 p.m. (CBS)
Status entering weekend: First Four Out
Game classification: Quad 2
New Mexico slipped to the wrong side of the bubble after a 67-60 Quad 1 loss at Nevada on Tuesday. The Lobos’ results-based metrics are hovering around 50th. They will likely need to climb into the mid-40s by Selection Sunday to have a realistic chance at an invitation. Regardless, securing a road win at Utah State to close the regular season would be monumental. Furthermore, splitting the season series with San Diego State would help keep the Lobos near the cut line.
San Diego State
at New Mexico | 2 p.m. (CBS)
Status entering weekend: No. 11 seed (automatic qualifier)
Game classification: Quad 1
The Mountain West Conference could potentially secure anywhere from one to three bids, depending on the outcomes for San Diego State and New Mexico. The Aztecs are currently included in the CBS Sports Bracketology field as the conference’s automatic bid winner. However, from an at-large standpoint, they rank 53rd in WAB and still have work to do. This particular game is critical as it represents the most significant remaining regular-season contest for the Aztecs.
UCLA
at Minnesota | 2 p.m. (FS1)
Status entering weekend: No. 9 seed
Game classification: Quad 1
Following a significant loss at Michigan State on Feb. 17, the Bruins had dropped three of five games, including two consecutive by a combined 53 points. Their season appeared to be quickly unraveling. Yet, back-to-back victories over Illinois and USC have reignited UCLA’s tournament aspirations. If the Bruins can win two of their final three games, they will likely head into the Big Ten Tournament in a favorable position.
Georgia
vs. South Carolina | 3:30 p.m. (SEC Network)
Status entering weekend: No. 10 seed
Game classification: Quad 3
Georgia is currently well-positioned, but a loss here would alter that. A home defeat to a struggling South Carolina team would result in an estimated WAB hit of approximately 0.80, translating to a 5-7 spot drop in their WAB ranking. This would place Georgia in the low-to-mid 40s, close to the likely cut line. However, if the Bulldogs handle a team they are favored to beat, they will enter the final week of the regular season on stable ground.
USC
vs. Nebraska | 4 p.m. (Big Ten Network)
Status entering weekend: Next Four Out
Game classification: Quad 1
While USC might seem like a lost cause amidst a four-game losing streak, they have back-to-back Quad 1 opportunities ahead, beginning Saturday against Nebraska. If they can finish with a three-game winning streak—or win two of three and benefit from other bubble teams’ results—they could still enter the Big Ten Tournament with some at-large hope. Achieving this will require significant and rapid improvement, as their current performance is underwhelming.
California
vs. Pitt | 4 p.m. (ACC Network)
Status entering weekend: Last Four In
Game classification: Quad 3
Playing against lowly Pitt at home is purely a potential pitfall for Cal. It’s a low-reward, high-risk situation, and the Bears must be prepared. With victories over four teams projected for the tournament (UCLA, North Carolina, Miami, and SMU), Cal’s resume currently looks promising. This would quickly change if the Bears falter against the Panthers.
Texas
at Texas A&M | 4 p.m. (ESPN2)
Status entering weekend: No. 10 seed
Game classification: Quad 1
Texas held an advantage over Florida until the final seven minutes on Wednesday. At that point, the Gators accelerated, showcasing their top gear and leaving the Longhorns behind. Missing out on what could have been a resume-defining win was disheartening. Nevertheless, Texas should easily move past that and get motivated for Texas A&M. After losing their initial home game against the Aggies on Jan. 17, Texas will be seeking vengeance in a high-stakes “double bubble” matchup.
Texas A&M
vs. Texas | 4 p.m. (ESPN2)
Status entering weekend: Last Four In
Game classification: Quad 2
Witnessing Bucky McMillan’s high-octane offensive system return to the NCAA Tournament would be exciting. Recall his Samford team pushing Kansas to the brink in a 2024 first-round game. Now in his inaugural season with the Aggies, McMillan commands more talent. Still, he needs a couple more victories to feel secure after A&M endured a four-game losing streak to start February.
TCU
at Kansas State | 6:30 p.m. (ESPN2)
Status entering weekend: Last Four In
Game classification: Quad 2
TCU has secured wins in five of its last six games, bringing their record to 18-10 (8-7 in the Big 12) before the weekend. The Horned Frogs’ resume is quite varied, featuring victories over Florida, Wisconsin, and Iowa State, but also losses to Notre Dame, Utah, and Colorado. Their proven ability to defeat high-caliber opponents bodes well for Jamie Dixon’s squad in the selection process, but the Horned Frogs must win two of their remaining three games.
Santa Clara
vs. Oregon State | 8 p.m. (CBS Sports Network)
Status entering weekend: Last Four In
Game classification: Quad 4
Santa Clara suffered a home loss to Gonzaga on Feb. 14 and then fell to Saint Mary’s on Wednesday. The Gaels needed to win one of those two contests to feel relatively safe. Now, they must take care of business against Oregon State and then brace for a potentially intense WCC Tournament. Defeating either the Zags or Gaels on a neutral court would be significant for a Santa Clara team with a 1-5 record in Quad 1 games.
Auburn
vs. Ole Miss | 8:30 p.m. (SEC Network)
Status entering weekend: No. 10 seed
Game classification: Quad 3
Typically, a Quad 3 game this late in the season is an unnecessary risk for a bubble team. However, for Auburn, hosting Ole Miss might be considered a welcome break. After enduring a period of six losses in seven games, Auburn simply needs victories. Ole Miss is currently struggling with a 10-game losing streak, which should allow the Tigers to regain their composure.
Virginia Tech
at North Carolina | 8:30 p.m. (ESPN2)
Status entering weekend: Next Four Out
Game classification: Quad 1
Virginia Tech supporters, having witnessed their team drop four of its last six games, might question why the Hokies are still featured in a bubble watch. Yet, a road win against North Carolina would propel Virginia Tech significantly closer to the cut line, projected to result in a 5-8 spot increase in their WAB ranking. A season-ending road game at Virginia also presents a major opportunity. While it will require one or two major upsets, the Hokies’ tournament hopes are not yet extinguished.
Saint Mary’s
vs. Gonzaga | 10:30 p.m. (ESPN)
Status entering weekend: No. 10 seed
Game classification: Quad 1
Saint Mary’s averages as a top-30 team across both results-based and predictive metrics used by the selection committee. Despite an 8-1 record in Quad 2 games, the Gaels remain winless in Quad 1. Wednesday night’s 86-67 home victory over Santa Clara was their best win of the season, which is somewhat concerning. Defeating Gonzaga one final time before the Bulldogs depart for the Pac-12 would provide excellent insurance for their tournament bid.
Bubble teams playing Sunday
Ohio State
vs. No. 8 Purdue | 1:30 p.m. (CBS)
Status entering weekend: First Four Out
Game classification: Quad 1
Ohio State welcomed back its second-leading scorer, John Mobley Jr., after a three-game injury absence, yet the Buckeyes appeared lackluster in a 74-57 loss at Iowa on Wednesday. That game was their last opportunity to defeat an at-large caliber team in a true road environment, and they failed. Hosting Purdue represents Ohio State’s final guaranteed chance to make a significant statement.
Indiana
vs. No. 13 Michigan State | 3:45 p.m. (ESPN)
Status entering weekend: Next Four Out
Game classification: Quad 1
Indiana’s combined total of four victories across Quad 1 and Quad 2 is the lowest among all high-major teams ranked in the NET’s top 60. That’s the drawback. The upside is that IU boasts wins over projected tournament teams Purdue, UCLA, and Wisconsin. This resume allows for various interpretations, but the Hoosiers desperately need to halt their three-game losing streak.