United States President Donald Trump characterized Russia’s military assistance to Iran as merely “a bit.”
On March 13, he conveyed to Fox News that Moscow “might be helping them a bit.”
The following day, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi tersely described Moscow’s military collaboration with Tehran as “good.”
His remarks appeared to corroborate previous media accounts indicating Russia supplies Iran with satellite imagery and intelligence regarding the positions of US naval vessels and aircraft.
This might not seem significant, considering the advanced capabilities of Western military satellites and Russia’s difficulties with battlefield losses and communication issues, especially after Elon Musk’s SpaceX disabled illicitly obtained Starlink internet terminals.
Nevertheless, the intelligence Iran is obtaining concerning US military assets most probably originates from Liana, Russia’s sole fully operational spy satellite network, as stated by an expert specializing in Russia’s space program and military affairs.
Pavel Luzin, a senior fellow at the US-based Jamestown Foundation think tank, informed Al Jazeera that “The [Liana] system has been created to spy on US carrier strike groups and other navy forces and for identifying them as targets.”
Eyes in the sky
Beyond this, Russia was instrumental in the evolution of Iran’s space program, particularly with its crucial Khayyam satellite.
The Khayyam satellite, weighing 650kg (1,430 pounds), was launched in 2022 from Russia’s Baikonur cosmodrome; it orbits Earth at an altitude of 500 kilometers (310 miles) and offers a resolution of one meter (3.3 feet).
Luzin noted that Moscow “can, in theory, receive and process data from Iran’s optical imaging satellite and share data from its own several satellites.”
This past Wednesday, Tehran asserted it had hit the Abraham Lincoln carrier using several cruise and ballistic missiles, an assertion the Pentagon quickly dismissed as “pure fiction.”
Then, on Sunday, Iranian media alleged that a “massive blaze” resulted from an attack on a US destroyer undergoing refuelling in the Indian Ocean.
Washington offered no comment regarding that particular strike.
For many decades, Russia has been a consistent supplier of armaments to Iran, including sophisticated air defence systems, training and combat aircraft, helicopters, armored vehicles, and sniper rifles, totaling billions of dollars in value.
Since the commencement of strikes by Washington and Tel Aviv on February 28, Russia has persistently supported Iran by providing “intelligence, data, experts and components” for its weaponry, according to Lieutenant General Ihor Romanenko, former deputy chief of Ukraine’s general staff of armed forces, who spoke to Al Jazeera.
Although Moscow and Tehran publicly tout their strategic partnership, they lack a mutual defense pact, and Russia has refrained from direct involvement in the conflict.
However, the exchange of armaments has been reciprocal. Following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Tehran has supplied Moscow with ammunition, artillery shells, firearms, short-range ballistic missiles, helmets, and flak jackets.
Drones with ‘comets’
Furthermore, the Shahed kamikaze drones—known for being slow, loud, yet inexpensive to produce—have been deployed against Ukrainian cities in waves, initially by the dozens and later by the hundreds. Ukraine has become exceptionally skilled at neutralizing these drones, even mass-producing cost-effective interceptor systems specifically designed for Shaheds. This expertise is now being shared with Gulf states, where Iranian forces have recently targeted US military installations.
During its conflict with Ukraine, Moscow has produced and upgraded Shahed drones, enhancing their speed and lethality, and outfitting them with cameras, navigation systems, and sometimes, artificial intelligence modules.
Consequently, some of these technological advancements have now been transferred back to Iran.
On March 1, an Iran-backed Hezbollah-launched Shahed drone, incorporating a critical Russian component, successfully struck a British airbase on Cyprus, as reported by the UK’s Times newspaper on March 7.
This drone was said to contain a Kometa-B (Comet B), a Russian-manufactured satellite navigation module that doubles as an anti-jamming defense, thus increasing the drones’ resilience to electronic interference.
Furthermore, Russia has refined the strategy of deploying swarms of both actual and decoy drones to deplete and overpower Western-provided air defense systems in Ukraine.
According to Western officials, this tactic is currently assisting Iran in targeting locations within the Gulf region.
Following an incident on March 12 where Iranian drones attacked a base utilized by Western forces in Erbil, northern Iraq, British Defence Secretary John Healey remarked, “I think no one will be surprised to believe that Putin’s hidden hand is behind some of the Iranian tactics and potentially some of their capabilities as well.”
Nevertheless, experts suggest that if Iran is indeed facing a scarcity of drones—a belief held by some analysts—then both Russian tactics and Russia-provided satellite data would prove ineffective.
Nikita Smagin, a Russian expert with extensive writings on Moscow-Tehran relations, commented to Al Jazeera, “Russia does supply data, it’s obvious, the data helps Iran, but not much.”
According to Nikolay Mitrokhin, a researcher at Germany’s Bremen University, following four days of concentrated attacks involving up to 250 drones daily in early March, Iran’s daily drone launches have since decreased to a maximum of 50.
He informed Al Jazeera, “Iran ran out of steam really fast.”
‘A goodwill gesture’
Furthermore, Moscow’s primary interest may not lie in an outright Iranian military triumph, as the ongoing conflict serves to benefit Russian President Vladimir Putin’s separate war in Ukraine.
Lieutenant General Romanenko observed that soaring oil prices “make Putin financially capable of further hostilities.”
With Iran impeding maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the cost of Brent crude—the global standard—has surged beyond $100 per barrel over the last three weeks. This economic fallout compelled US President Donald Trump to temporarily lift sanctions on Russian oil shipments. Consequently, tankers carrying Russian oil destined for China have been observed executing U-turns mid-ocean to redirect to India, as nations vie to secure Russian oil consignments at sea. The value of Urals crude has also seen a recovery.
Romanenko stated that Putin “hasn’t achieved his goals in Ukraine and will therefore use anything, including the war [in Iran] and lies to achieve his vision, press with his ultimatums.”
Ruslan Suleymanov, an associate fellow at the US-British New Eurasian Strategies Center think tank, conveyed to Al Jazeera that the Kremlin “doesn’t pursue a breakthrough in this war, doesn’t help Iran break the United States and Israel.”
He further elaborated that the present intelligence and military assistance is “more of a goodwill gesture, an attempt to create an illusion of help, to show Tehran that despite the lack of formal commitments, Russia doesn’t leave its friend in need.”
Tehran, recognizing the inadequacy of Moscow’s assistance, thus depends on its own strategy of escalating hostilities across the entire region through attacks on neighboring nations and by destabilizing the global economy with rapidly increasing oil prices.
He concluded, “Iranians understand that the forces are not equal and it’s impossible to defeat the United States and Israel on the battlefield, and no Russian aid is going to help.”
Ultimately, it appears Trump’s assessment that Moscow “might be helping them a bit” could be remarkably accurate.