The recent US and Israeli assaults on Iran, which began this past weekend, sent shockwaves through global markets, causing significant price fluctuations in the S&P 500 (GSPC), crude oil, and gold.
Meanwhile, President Trump asserted that the conflict might persist for four to five weeks, or potentially even “be fought ‘forever’” given current ammunition reserves, indicating a probable continuation of market instability.
In fact, a sharp decline in stock prices occurred on Tuesday, triggered by renewed attacks that fueled concerns of a prolonged conflict.
However, a Yahoo Finance examination of these three crucial markets — crude oil, gold, and equities — during past periods of geopolitical upheaval revealed a consistent trend: initial trading days often saw price surges, but these typically settled back to normal levels within a few weeks, even during extended conflicts.
This review encompassed nine significant historical events, ranging from Iraq’s 1990 invasion of Kuwait to the recent apprehension of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela. It concluded that the condition of these three markets at the conflict’s outset diverged significantly a month later.
A column of smoke is visible ascending following an attack on Tehran, the Iranian capital, on March 3, 2026. (ATTA KENARE / AFP via Getty Images)·ATTA KENARE via Getty Images
Possibly the most striking illustration took place last June during the short 12-day conflict involving Israel and Iran. In that confrontation, American forces intercepted Iranian assaults and targeted Iranian nuclear facilities.
The conflict commenced on June 13, 2025, triggering instant surges in oil and gold values and a decline in equities. However, after 30 trading sessions, all three markets had reversed their initial movements.
The immediate price of Europe Brent crude oil surged by nearly 7.3% between June 12 and 13. Yet, prices had decreased by 0.6% after 30 trading days, based on data from the US Energy Information Administration.
Gold exhibited a comparable trend. Yahoo Finance’s internal data indicates a single-day increase of 1.49% during that particular conflict, subsequently followed by a 1.39% drop over 30 trading days.
The S&P 500 demonstrated an analogous trajectory — albeit in the opposite direction — experiencing a 1.13% fall on the initial trading day subsequent to the onset of bombings, only to rebound with a 5.70% gain after 30 trading days.
The impact of the recent Iranian strikes is, to date, conforming to this established historical trend.
The Brent Crude oil market closed last Friday at $72.48 per barrel. By Monday’s close, it had reached $78.16, marking an increase of more than 7.8%. Gold also saw a gain of nearly 2.7% within the identical period.
Concurrently, the S&P 500 started Monday with losses but then recovered, finishing the first trading day after the attacks slightly positive before plummeting sharply in early Tuesday trading.
In the interim, minimal analysts were prepared to forecast future price movements.
“We simply lack sufficient data regarding the duration of this situation or its potential long-term consequences,” stated Jim Smigiel, SEI chief investment officer, during a Monday appearance on Yahoo Finance, advising individual investors to “remain calm and avoid significant actions.”
Whether this conflict will conform to established market behaviors is yet uncertain. The strikes in Iran this past weekend are already considerably broader in scope and more impactful than those in the 12-day war, particularly with the assassination of Ali Hosseini Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader since 1989.
President Donald Trump attends a Medal of Honor ceremony in the White House’s East Room on March 2. (Kyle Mazza/Anadolu via Getty Images)·Anadolu via Getty Images
Irrespective of the immediate developments in this conflict, initial day price shifts during periods of worldwide tension show minimal correlation with where prices settle a month later.
Across the events examined by Yahoo Finance for this article, which included the commencement of the Russia-Ukraine war, American intervention in Libya, and the 2003 Iraq War, the one-day price movement direction aligned with the one-month direction less than 56% of instances.
The analysis determined that prices frequently experienced only modest adjustments after a month, despite potentially massive surges on the initial day.
As an illustration, gold prices surged by 6.85% on the first trading day following the September 11, 2001, attacks, but subsequently declined. Over a 30-day period, its increase was a more modest 2.28%.
Likewise, oil prices climbed over 34% within days of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine beginning, yet they had stabilized after 30 trading days, showing a mere 1.53% increase.
This is a lesson that energy market observers have revisited recently.
“We recall that Oil prices reached their peak approximately a week after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” noted Chris Verrone of Strategas in a memo, also highlighting numerous distinctions in the current situation.
Ultimately, he concluded, “we would still be more inclined to purchase dips in Energy sector stocks in the coming weeks.”
Tanker ships are visible near the United Arab Emirates coastline on March 3, following Iran’s declaration to shut down the Strait of Hormuz. (REUTERS/Amr Alfiky)·Reuters / Reuters
This was consistent with a broader anticipation of potential price stabilization, although recent historical data presents a notable exception.
The 1990 invasion of Kuwait by Iraq initiated price shifts on the initial day that not only persisted but intensified over the subsequent month of trading.
That upheaval commenced when Saddam Hussein’s Iraqi forces gathered near the Kuwaiti frontier and subsequently breached it on August 2. Oil prices climbed 11.64% after one day, then skyrocketed by nearly 57% over a 30-day interval.
Similarly, the S&P 500 opened down 1.14% after the first day of that particular conflict and continued its descent in the following weeks, ultimately declining over 10% after 30 days.
Even in that scenario, however, prices eventually rebounded several months later when coalition forces drove Iraqi troops out of Kuwait, and Hussein’s military withdrew to Baghdad.
Ben Werschkul reports from Washington for Yahoo Finance.
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