Our football betting expert Jones Knows provides his insight across the weekend Premier League card.
Bournemouth vs Sunderland, Saturday 12.30pm
Over their last ten games, Bournemouth’s defense has been allowing approximately 1.64 expected goals against (xGA) per 90 minutes. This rate is concerning and unlikely to be sustainable for a team aiming for a strong finish to the season. These aren’t merely long-range attempts; they are conceding significant, high-probability scoring opportunities with alarming regularity. Last weekend, West Ham generated 3.25 xG but failed to convert any against the Bournemouth backline.
While the betting market strongly favors the home side, Bournemouth’s propensity to allow so many scoring chances via xGA suggests they will eventually be punished. Sunderland doesn’t necessarily need to control the entire match; they only require crucial moments, which they are certainly capable of creating. With Evens available on the double chance market, this presents a compelling option.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Burnley vs Brentford, Saturday 3pm
Josh Laurent has solidified his position in Burnley’s modified defensive setup on the right side, a role he has embraced fully. He displays a competitive spirit, plays aggressively forward, and is quick to challenge opponents. However, Laurent has been treading a thin line between assertive play and indiscretion for several weeks now.
His record of five yellow cards in 2026 speaks volumes. This tendency is particularly risky when he’s up against a direct and dynamic player like Brentford’s Kevin Schade. Schade is renowned for drawing fouls, having been involved in 14 opposition bookings since the beginning of last season. He consistently pressures defenders, moves the ball swiftly, and induces hurried challenges. Any lapse in concentration or excessive eagerness could prove costly. Laurent is priced at 3/1 with Sky Bet to receive a card.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Liverpool vs West Ham, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6!
Liverpool’s odds are exceptionally low, perhaps too low. Their recent performances, in my view, don’t entirely warrant a price of 4/11 with Sky Bet.
While they secured a win against Nottingham Forest, their display was quite poor. The result hinged on fine margins, and on a different occasion, they could easily have dropped points. Arne Slot’s structured philosophy is evident: methodical build-up, control of possession, and minimized unpredictability. However, the potential drawback of eliminating chaos is also suppressing creativity and flair. Occasionally, they appear to be dangerously close to lacking dynamism.
Conversely, West Ham’s counter-attacks are executed with clear intent.
Jarrod Bowen continues to be among the league’s most effective forwards in transition – direct, intelligent in his positioning, and clinical in front of goal. Crysensio Summerville provides an explosive pace and an element of surprise, capable of transforming defensive situations into offensive threats rapidly. Given West Ham’s urgent need for victories, betting on them for a significant away win at 6/1 with Sky Bet seems like a logical choice.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Newcastle vs Everton, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6!
At home, when Newcastle hits their stride, much of their most effective play originates from the left flank. Lewis Hall has adapted exceptionally well to this position and is subtly cultivating a valuable skill that bettors ought to note. Since December, he has been winning approximately 2.27 fouls per 90 minutes. This consistent pattern indicates a deliberate tactic; he quickly moves the ball, encourages physical contact, and has become adept at earning free-kicks.
Iliman Ndiaye will frequently be directly challenging Hall. Considering Hall averages over two fouls drawn per match in that area, the statistics support the likelihood of Ndiaye committing two or more fouls, available at 6/4 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Leeds vs Manchester City, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6!
While Erling Haaland is typically associated with scoring goals, his playmaking ability might currently offer a more insightful betting angle, as his creative output has seen a significant increase.
In his initial 18 league matches of the 2025 season, he only generated 10 chances from open play.
However, in 2026, he has already matched that tally in just nine league appearances.
More recently, he has provided six assists across his last 17 games.
We are witnessing a more versatile Haaland, who is being encouraged to participate more actively in the build-up play, delivering passes across the six-yard box and threading through-balls for teammates.
Given that the market expects City to score at least twice, Haaland’s odds of 7/2 for an assist with Sky Bet look appealing.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Brighton vs Nottingham Forest, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
Under new manager Vitor Pereira, Elliot Anderson has been deployed in a more advanced role, and he has confirmed that the directive is clear: deliver more end product, maintain a greater presence in the attacking third, and crucially for bettors, take more shots.
This is excellent news for anyone involved in player-prop betting markets.
Including his appearances as a substitute, Anderson has taken 17 shots in his last four outings. For a player who previously operated deeper and focused more on linking play rather than attempting to score, the algorithms setting the odds for shots appear not to have fully adjusted to this change in his position.
Therefore, the 11/8 odds with Sky Bet for him to have two or more shots seem to reflect Anderson’s former role rather than his current one.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Fulham vs Tottenham, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6!
The specter of relegation is looming large for Tottenham, with odds now standing at 5/1 for them to be in the Championship next season.
With only 11 matches remaining, significant money is being wagered on this outcome. What was once considered unimaginable is now a distinct possibility.
They are indeed in a perilous situation.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Sky Sports reporter Michael Bridge is at the Tottenham Hotspur training ground to recap the ins and outs of Igor Tudor’s Premier League press conference
Perhaps the most significant concern for everyone connected with the club isn’t solely the results, but an ongoing identity crisis. They appear to be stuck between conflicting tactical philosophies and playing styles. A difficult injury situation has also taken a toll. Crucially, when under increased pressure, their response has been lacking.
In contrast, Fulham has secured victories in all five of their Premier League matches against teams currently in the bottom five this season. Furthermore, they have triumphed in their last two Premier League encounters with Spurs.
The pivotal factor here is that Fulham possesses a clear sense of identity: they are structured, aggressive at opportune moments, and composed on the ball. Facing a team performing like a relegation candidate, at home, this clarity is a tremendous advantage.
Do Spurs possess the fortitude, the mental strength, or the fighting spirit required for this challenge? Currently, all underlying indicators suggest otherwise. Therefore, Fulham at Evens with Sky Bet seems like a strong bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1
Manchester United vs Crystal Palace, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6!
This particular fixture presents a scenario where Manchester United’s absence from European competition offers them a significant edge. Oliver Glasner’s teams have consistently shown a distinct pattern: when involved in a European knockout match, every aspect – emotional, tactical, and physical – is elevated to maximum intensity. The consequence? The subsequent league fixture frequently suffers.
In the eight league games immediately following a midweek knockout fixture, Glasner’s sides have recorded six losses, one draw, and only a single win. Even that recent victory against Wolves last weekend seemed rather fortunate, with crucial decisions favoring them.
Now, they are set to play Manchester United, a team that has begun to establish a consistent rhythm, showing increased intent in their attacking play. Betting on Manchester United to win by two or more goals at 11/8 with Sky Bet offers a price that doesn’t seem to fully factor in Palace’s anticipated dip in performance after their European commitments.
SCORE PREDICTION: 4-0
Arsenal vs Chelsea, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6!
For Arsenal, this match is one of just two remaining Premier League encounters against a fellow current top-six adversary, the other being their trip to Manchester City in April.
While Chelsea typically elevate their performance in significant fixtures, Arsenal’s defensive solidity is simply too consistent to disregard when evaluating the odds for this game. Arsenal’s fundamental defensive metrics continue to be among the league’s best by a considerable margin, with goals primarily conceded due to individual errors or improbable long-range shots.
The last Premier League goal they conceded from open play inside the penalty area, not resulting from an individual mistake, was Ollie Watkins’ consolation goal for Aston Villa back on December 30th – a span of nine games.
During this period, they have not allowed a well-worked, strategically created goal inside the box. This demonstrates elite defensive command. The common wager of Arsenal to win and under 3.5 goals, priced at 11/8 with Sky Bet, which has proven successful in seven of their last 11 home Premier League fixtures, has a strong likelihood of occurring here.