Sean Barnard offers his analysis and prediction for the NCAA men’s basketball game between the Santa Clara Broncos and the Saint Mary’s Gaels.
Concluding tonight’s NCAA basketball schedule, the Santa Clara Broncos are set to compete against the Saint Mary’s Gaels.
This marks the second encounter this season for these two West Coast Conference rivals. Their initial game on January 17 saw Santa Clara emerge victorious with a 62-54 score. Both teams are currently positioned among the top three seeds in the WCC standings, with Gonzaga leading the conference.
According to the odds, Saint Mary’s is favored by 5.5 points, with a Moneyline of -265 on DraftKings Sportsbook. Santa Clara has +215 odds for an outright win, and the total points for the game are set at 153.5.
Prediction and Preview: Santa Clara vs. Saint Mary’s
The Santa Clara Broncos boast a 23-6 overall record this season, including an impressive 14-2 in conference play. They head into this game following a win against San Francisco and have secured victories in 10 of their last 11 contests. Their defeats this year were against Gonzaga (twice), Saint Louis, New Mexico, Arizona State, and Loyola Chicago. Season-wise, Santa Clara maintains a 16-12 against-the-spread record, and the game total has exceeded expectations in 19 of their 28 eligible games. Odds were not provided on DraftKings Sportsbook for their season opener against Humboldt State.
Coach Herb Sendek’s team averages 84.0 points per game, placing them 28th among Division I programs. The Broncos also stand 38th in offensive rating, 52nd in field goal percentage, 169th in three-point percentage, and 27th in three-point attempts per game. Defensively, Santa Clara limits opponents to 72.0 points per game, which ranks 125th among 365 eligible teams. Furthermore, the Broncos are 67th in defensive rating, 226th in opponent field goal percentage, and 124th in opponent three-point percentage.
Christian Hammond is the team’s top scorer, averaging 16.4 points per game, supplemented by 3.0 rebounds and 2.4 assists, and an impressive 40.4% shooting from three-point range. Elijah Mahi contributes 14.4 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 2.7 assists. Allen Graves is the only other player averaging double-digit points, with 11.1 points, a team-best 6.6 rebounds, and 40% shooting from beyond the arc. Other key rotational players include Aleksander Gavalyugov, Bukky Oboye, Brenton Knapper, and Jake Ensminger.
Saint Mary’s boasts an overall record of 25-4 for the season and a 14-2 mark in conference matchups. The team comes into this contest riding a six-game winning streak, having suffered its most recent defeat on January 31st. The Gaels’ four losses this year were to Vanderbilt, Boise State, Santa Clara, and Gonzaga. Throughout the season, Saint Mary’s has a solid 18-10 against-the-spread record; no odds were provided for their game against DII UC Merced. The game total has gone under in 16 of their 28 qualifying games (12-16 over/under record).
Paulius Murauskas is a key contributor, leading with 19.0 points per game, complemented by 7.6 rebounds and 2.3 assists. Joshua Dent chips in 13.2 points and 5.7 assists, also leading the conference in minutes played at 36.0 per game. Mikey Lewis is the only other Gael averaging double-digit scoring, with 13.1 points, 2.7 rebounds, and 2.0 assists. Andrew McKeever paces the WCC in rebounds per game with 9.2, in addition to his 8.6 points. Dillan Shaw, Liam Campbell, Harry Wessels, and Tony Duckett complete the primary rotation.
Saint Mary’s averages 78.4 points per game, positioning them 126th nationally. They also hold rankings of 50th in offensive rating, 110th in field-goal percentage, 14th in three-point percentage, and 26th in rebounds per game. Defensively, the Gaels restrict their opponents to just 64.3 points per contest, which is the seventh-lowest figure across the country. Furthermore, they are ranked 17th in defensive rating, 25th in opponent field-goal percentage, and 28th in opponent three-point percentage.
Santa Clara vs. Saint Mary’s: My Pick and Best Bet
Santa Clara secured a 62-54 win in their initial game against Saint Mary’s. The Broncos successfully covered the 1.5-point spread, and the overall game total significantly missed the 152.5 mark. Santa Clara led throughout the entire game, a contest where both teams experienced shooting difficulties. The Broncos managed only 41% from the field and 21% from beyond the arc, while the Gaels faced even more significant challenges, converting just 31% of their field goals and 18% of their three-point attempts.
As two of the WCC’s premier teams, both squads are expected to deliver their strongest performance in this contest. My inclination leans towards the ‘under’ hitting once more tonight, anticipating a tough defensive battle where points will be hard-earned. Nevertheless, I am supporting Saint Mary’s to level the season series and successfully cover the 5.5-point spread.
This season, the Gaels have demonstrated superior performance at home, achieving a 10-4 against-the-spread record in such games. Furthermore, they are 16-9 ATS when favored and 14-3 ATS when both teams have had equal rest, which applies to tonight’s game. The 54 points Saint Mary’s managed in their previous encounter were their lowest offensive output of the entire season. Their next lowest score was 63 points, which also coincided with their poorest shooting percentages from both the field and three-point range all season. While Santa Clara’s defensive effort deserves praise, they haven’t consistently demonstrated this level of defensive intensity. In fact, this was the third-lowest point total Santa Clara had conceded all year, with only Louisiana and Cal Poly Humboldt scoring less.
Anticipate Saint Mary’s to deliver an improved performance in this second game, with the Gaels playing closer to their established season-long standard. Both teams currently hold a 14-2 conference record, making this contest highly likely to determine the second-place finisher in the conference. Saint Mary’s stands as the superior team overall and will undoubtedly be motivated to demonstrate this with a focused effort. Their earlier loss to Santa Clara represented their poorest showing of the season, and they have since compiled an 8-1 record. They possess significantly more talent than they displayed in the first game and are poised to validate this tonight.