The central US is bracing for a fresh, severe storm outbreak on Friday, featuring potentially intense tornadoes and damaging wind gusts of up to 90 mph. This comes as many of these areas are still reeling from days of destructive twisters, massive hail, and widespread flooding.
Initial storms are already active and are forecast to intensify and spread throughout the afternoon. Tornado watches have been issued for approximately 14 million people stretching from Wisconsin down to northern and western Oklahoma, effective until early evening.
The highest risk for tornadoes, some of which could reach EF3 intensity or greater, is concentrated in western Wisconsin, southeastern Minnesota, eastern Iowa, and northwest Illinois. Additionally, these storms are expected to bring widespread destructive winds and hail across a broad region from Oklahoma City to Green Bay, Wisconsin, throughout Friday afternoon and evening.
This latest threat follows nearly 50 tornado reports and over 350 instances of hail, some as large as softballs, reported from Texas to the Great Lakes since Monday.
A renewed surge of jet stream energy moving into the central US on Friday will tap into moisture from the Gulf, likely triggering a widespread severe storm outbreak, signifying numerous storms.
A Level 4 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms is in effect for an area spanning from northwest Oklahoma to western Missouri, encompassing Kansas City and Wichita, Kansas. The primary dangers in this zone are giant hail, potentially softball-sized, and destructive wind gusts exceeding 80 mph, though isolated tornadoes are also possible.
Significant storms are also anticipated within a Level 3 out of 5 risk area, which stretches northward and eastward to include eastern Iowa, Wisconsin, and Illinois, covering cities like St. Louis, Chicago, and Madison, Wisconsin. This region also contains the highest concern for intense tornadoes—those rated EF3 or stronger—from La Crosse, Wisconsin, to Davenport, Iowa, and Moline, Illinois.
The initial wave of storms forming in the western part of the affected zone is most prone to producing tornadoes and the largest hail, which could cause significant damage to vehicles, shatter windows, and compromise roofs.
By late afternoon and evening, as thunderstorms track eastward, widespread damaging wind gusts, ranging from 60 mph to 90 mph, are expected to become the dominant threat, capable of uprooting trees and causing power outages. Tornadoes may also continue to develop along the leading edges of these storm systems.
Flash flooding is another potential hazard from these storms, particularly in already saturated areas like Chicago and Milwaukee, where dozens of water rescues have occurred recently.
This weather system might trigger one final round of severe storms with strong winds on Saturday in the upper Ohio Valley. Finally, starting Sunday, the central US, weary from repeated storms, will experience a reprieve as a change in weather patterns brings cooler temperatures.
Friday’s severe weather coincides with significant flooding in parts of the Great Lakes region, which has endured successive rain events this week. The area has experienced one of its wettest starts to spring on record, exacerbated by snowmelt from a very active winter.
Over 20 river locations in Michigan and Wisconsin have already reached major or record flood stages.
As of Friday morning, the Wolf River in Wisconsin was nearly a foot above its record flood stage, a level causing up to a foot of water on many streets in Shiocton village. Shiocton officials confirmed that “a majority of the streets in the village limits are impassable” on Friday morning and advised residents to avoid the area after evacuations were ordered on Wednesday.
Due to rising floodwaters, residents in low-lying areas of nearby Waupaca County have also been advised to evacuate. On Friday morning, the city of New London, which spans Waupaca and Outagamie counties, issued an urgent call for sandbagging volunteers.
In Michigan, authorities are closely observing several dams currently under strain from elevated water levels.
A significant portion of the Muskegon River remained in major flood status on Friday morning, with some areas approaching their peak while others continued to see rising levels. This flooding led to mandatory evacuations for “anyone remaining in the floodplain below Croton Dam” in Newaygo County, as reported by the county’s emergency services.
In Evart, Michigan, the river was nearing its crest on Friday morning, having prompted rescues the previous day when floodwaters began affecting homes, according to the Evart Fire Department.
Residents residing near and north of the Cheboygan dam complex were advised on Thursday morning to prepare for evacuation as water levels continued their ascent, reaching 5.16 inches below the top of the dam by Friday morning. According to a Michigan Department of Natural Resources news release, an evacuation order would be issued if water levels come within 1 inch of the dam’s top.
Crews are engaged in continuous efforts to safeguard the dam, employing pumps, sandbags, and making adjustments to enhance water flow.
Cheboygan County Emergency Management Director Lt. Jeremy Runstrom informed CNN on Wednesday that dams throughout the county are “at capacity.”
Among these is the Alverno Dam, which officials are also striving to protect from the torrent. Its structural integrity is especially crucial, as a breach would unleash a deluge downstream toward the Cheboygan complex, Michigan State Rep. Cam Cavitt told CNN.
“If that dam were to fail, it would take the Cheboygan dam with it,” he stated on Wednesday.
On Thursday afternoon, residents living along the approximately seven-mile stretch of river between these two dams were advised to prepare and pack for a potential evacuation.
In Antrim County, Michigan, officials have also advised residents and businesses downstream of the Bellaire Dam to ready for possible evacuation. By Friday morning, water levels were stable and receding after having risen to within 12 inches of the dam’s top on Tuesday.
A flash flood watch is in effect for the Hesperia Dam in west-central Michigan due to the potential for its failure. While water levels were showing a downward trend, the Hesperia Area Fire Department stated early Friday morning that downstream residents should “remain vigilant and have an evacuation plan ready should conditions change.”