Texas vs. NC State prediction, odds, spread, time: 2026 NCAA Tournament picks from proven model

In a crucial 2026 First Four clash on Tuesday night, the Texas Longhorns are set to face the North Carolina State Wolfpack. The victor of this contest will earn the 11th seed in the tournament and advance to take on sixth-seeded BYU on Thursday. Texas enters this matchup following a 76-66 defeat to the Ole Miss Rebels in the SEC Tournament on Wednesday, while NC State suffered an 81-74 loss to Virginia on Thursday during the ACC Tournament. Both teams have struggled recently; the Longhorns (18-14), who secured 10th place in the SEC, have lost five of their last six outings. Similarly, the Wolfpack (20-13), who tied for seventh in the ACC, also carry a five-losses-in-six-games record into the game.

The game is scheduled for a 9:15 p.m. ET tipoff from UD Arena in Dayton, Ohio. Initially opening as a slight underdog, NC State is now favored by 1.5 points in the latest Texas vs. NC State odds, with the over/under for total points set at 158.5. Before making any NC State vs. Texas picks, it’s highly recommended to consult the men’s college basketball predictions and expert betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model meticulously simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. This model entered the tournament on an impressive 11-1 streak for its top-rated over/under college basketball picks, a run extending back to last season, and boasts a 28-22 record on top-rated CBB side picks. Bettors who have followed its college basketball advice through sportsbooks and betting apps have consistently seen substantial returns.

Today, the model has completed its 10,000 simulations for the Texas vs. NC State showdown and has just released its First Four picks and comprehensive betting predictions. To access these insights, you can head to SportsLine now to view the model’s selections. Below are several men’s college basketball odds and betting lines for the NC State vs. Texas game:

Key Texas vs. NC State Predictions

Following 10,000 simulations of the Texas vs. NC State game, SportsLine’s model confidently predicts the total will go Over (158.5 points). This aligns with the last head-to-head meeting, where the Over also hit. Furthermore, the Over has been a strong trend, hitting in 7 of the last 10 Texas games and in all of NC State’s last five games. In terms of against the spread (ATS) performance, Texas holds a 3-7 record in its last 10 games, while NC State has a 2-8 ATS record over the same period.

The model projects that four Longhorns players will score 14.8 points or more, with Dailyn Swain anticipated to lead them with 17.7 points. For the Wolfpack, five players are projected to reach double-digit scoring, with Quadir Copeland expected to post 15.1 points. Overall, the model forecasts a combined total of 161 points, indicating the Over clears in 54% of all simulations. 

Access NC State vs. Texas Picks

Additionally, the model indicates that one specific side of the spread has a success rate well exceeding 50% of the time. This highly confident pick is exclusively available at SportsLine.

So, what’s the ultimate outcome for Texas vs. NC State, and which side of the spread emerges victorious in over 50% of the simulations? Visit SportsLine now to uncover the exact side of the spread to back, leveraging insights from the advanced model that has simulated this game a remarkable 10,000 times, and make your informed decision.