The Minnesota Wild entered these playoffs with a formidable shutdown pairing. Matt Boldy and Joel Eriksson Ek are not only potent offensively but also play a robust two-way game. Their combination of size, strength, skill, and consistent puck-winning ability makes them a force.
Beyond the Wild’s physically imposing fourth line, this duo represents coach John Hynes’ prime choice for neutralizing an opposing line while simultaneously contributing offense.
As the series shifts to Minnesota for Games 3 and 4, Hynes gains a tactical advantage. The home ice allows him to dictate matchups after Dallas deploys its players before each face-off. This strategic flexibility enables him to craft advantageous scenarios for scorers like Kirill Kaprizov. Crucially, it also empowers him to choose which Dallas line Boldy and Eriksson Ek will be assigned to stifle throughout the game.
The challenge lies in selecting the right target. Despite the absence of Roope Hintz and Tyler Seguin, the Dallas Stars boast considerable scoring depth. Their top line features 40-goal scorer Wyatt Johnston alongside Mikko Rantanen, while another 40-goal scorer, Jason Robertson, and veteran talent Matt Duchene anchor the next unit.
This presents Hynes with a difficult “pick-your-poison” scenario. However, after the initial two games, Robertson’s line has emerged as the clear priority for Boldy and Eriksson Ek to contain.
Following Minnesota’s Game 2 loss, Marcus Foligno criticized the Stars’ 5-on-5 performance. He stated to the media, “They’re looking to play five-on-four… that’s their game. They can’t hang with us five-on-five.”
This observation has largely been substantiated by the first two games. Minnesota outscored Dallas 4-2 at 5-on-5 and largely contained most of Dallas’ key players, with Jason Robertson being the sole exception.
Robertson, Duchene, and Mavrik Bourque have logged 19 minutes and 43 seconds together at 5-on-5. During this time, they have generated a significant 12-to-5 lead in scoring chances, according to Natural Stat Trick. Without the Robertson line on the ice, 5-on-5 scoring chances are evenly split at 24-to-24.
Analyzing Glen Gulutzan’s matchup choices, it appears he focused on the Kaprizov line and the defensive pairing of Jonas Brodin and Jared Spurgeon. Both tactics are logical. Robertson, who lacks elite speed, finds this weakness minimized when facing veteran players such as Ryan Hartman, Mats Zuccarello, Vladimir Tarasenko, Brodin, and Spurgeon.
Directly pitting Robertson against Kaprizov also compels the Wild’s star forward to engage defensively. Robertson excels at wearing down opponents through sustained offensive zone cycles. His lengthy possessions in the offensive zone often force defenders to tirelessly chase his 6-foot-3 frame.
While Kaprizov is generally a competent defender, his linemates often aren’t in the same situation. Robertson can be effective against Kaprizov’s line even without scoring. In fact, he has played Kaprizov to a scoreless draw through ten and a half minutes of 5-on-5 play. Crucially, every second Kaprizov spends defending in his own zone is a second he isn’t menacing the Stars’ defense.
This strategy has proven effective. In Kaprizov’s head-to-head minutes against Rantanen, the Wild have generated zero scoring chances, while the Stars have recorded five.
On a positive note, Kaprizov has successfully exploited one of Dallas’ top lines. Kaprizov has individually out-chanced Rantanen by an 11-6 margin. Until Rantanen and Johnston can consistently slow Kaprizov, Hynes has every reason to continue targeting Rantanen’s line offensively.
The less favorable news is that even with Hynes employing his preferred matchups, Minnesota may not possess a definitive answer for Robertson. In a limited five-minute sample where Eriksson Ek faced Robertson, Robertson held a 4-to-0 advantage in scoring chances. Nevertheless, this remains Hynes’ best available solution; he must deploy his top shutdown line against Dallas’ most productive unit and observe the outcome.
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