What happens if Trump pushes to seize Kharg Island

The potential for a U.S. military operation to seize Kharg Island, a critically important strategic point often dubbed Iran’s “oil lifeline,” carries exceptionally high risks, both geopolitically and economically.

This five-mile-long coral isle, positioned approximately 15 miles off Iran’s mainland shore in the waters of the northern Persian Gulf, has remained untouched despite nearly two weeks of U.S. and Israeli-led military actions against Iran.

Discussions within the Trump administration regarding a possible takeover of the island were reported by an Axios article on March 7, which cited four anonymous sources with direct knowledge of these deliberations.

Officials from the White House previously indicated expectations of a sharp decline in oil prices once Operation Epic Fury concludes, while White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt affirmed the president’s “prudent” stance of keeping all strategic options open.

Kharg Island has garnered international attention due to its recognition as one of Iran’s most vulnerable economic assets. The facility handles approximately 90% of the nation’s crude oil exports and boasts a loading capacity of around 7 million barrels daily.

Experts suggest that any endeavor to attack or capture the island would necessitate a ground troop deployment, a course of action the U.S. appears hesitant to pursue. Such an assault would also likely trigger a sustained surge in already elevated oil prices.

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has previously declined to rule out sending American ground troops into Iran but emphasized that the U.S. would not become entrenched in the country.

Francis Galgano, an associate professor specializing in military geography and environmental security at Villanova University in Pennsylvania, highlighted Kharg Island’s crucial location in deep water, which facilitates access for oil supertankers.

“Donning my military strategist’s hat… if the goal is a swift victory, you would immediately neutralize or capture Kharg,” Galgano conveyed to CNBC via email, adding that such an attempt would exert maximum pressure on Tehran.

Nevertheless, securing the small island would be a considerable challenge, Galgano noted. “It would involve deploying a significant number of ground combat personnel to the area… I estimate roughly 5,000 to seize and maintain control of the island.”

He further commented, “Naturally, all of this impacts global oil markets, though they are already experiencing fluctuations.”

Oil prices have demonstrated extreme volatility since joint U.S. and Israeli airstrikes commenced in Iran on Feb. 28. In response, Iran has targeted vessels attempting to traverse the Strait of Hormuz, with multiple incidents reported over recent days.

This constricted waterway serves as a vital shipping artery connecting the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Approximately 20% of the world’s oil and gas typically transits through it.

On Friday, international benchmark Brent crude futures for May delivery saw a 1% decrease, settling at $99.45 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures for April delivery were observed 2% lower at $93.81.

Should Kharg Island become inoperable, analysts at JPMorgan stated that the absence of Iran’s storage capacity and the scarcity of alternative export routes would “rapidly initiate upstream production halts across major southwest fields.”

“With production nearing 3.3 million barrels per day (mbd) and exports around 1.5 mbd, up to half of the national output could be jeopardized if the hub remains offline, and the presumed 20-day buffer would disappear instantly,” they noted in a report issued Sunday.

Richard Goldberg, a senior advisor at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a non-profit research institute with a generally hawkish stance on Iran, expressed his understanding of the reluctance to undertake actions that could disrupt Iranian oil production at a time of market instability and ongoing potential for regime change.

“That situation may rapidly evolve as we regain security control of the Strait of Hormuz and gain clearer insight into the regime’s ability to maintain power for an extended period,” Goldberg conveyed to CNBC via email.

“At that juncture, we absolutely must consider disabling the export terminal or otherwise permanently severing the regime’s financial lifeline,” he added.

U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday suggested that the conflict with Iran was not nearing its conclusion, reportedly stating that the United States “possesses ample ammunition and time” to continue fighting.

His remarks followed closely on the heels of Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, who adopted an equally defiant posture, insisting that the Strait of Hormuz must remain closed as a “lever to pressure the adversary.”

Iran’s vast geographical expanse and mountainous terrain imply that any conventional U.S. ground force deployment in the region would necessitate hundreds of thousands of troops, according to Alex Plitsas, a senior nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council think tank.

“Any deployment of ground forces would likely be confined to special operations units for specific objectives,” Plitsas observed in a memo on Wednesday, without directly referencing Iran’s Kharg Island.

— Michael Bloom of CNBC contributed to this report.