A view of smoke rising from oil refinery smokestacks in Linden, New Jersey, captured on March 18, 2026.
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On Monday, crude oil prices climbed amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, fueled by Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis launching missiles toward Israel and U.S. President Donald Trump’s reported comments about seizing Iranian oil. These developments amplified fears of disruptions to the region’s energy supply routes.
The international benchmark, Brent crude futures for May delivery, saw a 2.5% increase, reaching $115.45 per barrel. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures, also for May delivery, climbed 1.5% to hit $101.17.
Brent crude has surged by over 55% in March alone, positioning the benchmark for its most significant monthly gain ever recorded.
In a Sunday interview with the Financial Times, Trump reportedly stated that his preferred approach regarding Iran would be to “take their oil,” drawing a parallel to U.S. actions in Venezuela, where Washington gained effective control of the country’s oil sector after the detention of its leader, Nicolás Maduro.
These remarks coincide with the U.S.-Israel and Iran conflict entering its fifth week, with hostilities spreading across the region. This expansion heightens risks to vital energy infrastructure and has triggered a sharp upward trend in crude prices.
Crude oil prices, year-to-date
On Saturday, Yemen’s Houthi rebels confirmed they had launched missiles at Israel, marking their initial direct involvement in the ongoing conflict between the U.S.-Israel alliance and Iran.
Yahya Saree, a spokesperson for the group, announced on X that a volley of ballistic missiles had been fired at what they described as critical Israeli military targets, in solidarity with Iranian and Hezbollah forces in Lebanon.
This assault signifies a further intensification of the conflict, which originally commenced on February 28 with U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran.
Michael Haigh, who serves as the global head of fixed income and commodities research at Societe Generale, indicated that additional disruptions through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—a vital shipping lane connecting the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea—could drive prices even higher.
“We’re looking at between four and five million barrels of oil passing through that route daily,” Haigh explained to CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Monday, referring to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
“As we move into April, numerous adjustments are expected, but if an additional four million barrels are removed from the Red Sea supply, on top of existing reductions, then the current oil price trajectory will climb significantly higher,” he elaborated.
Earlier this month, analysts at Societe Generale released a note suggesting that prolonged supply interruptions in the Middle East could push oil prices to $150 per barrel by April.
Experts have informed CNBC that the Houthis might attempt to impede maritime traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a narrow waterway between the Arabian Peninsula and the Horn of Africa, crucial for ships accessing the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, thereby exacerbating pressure on global trade.
Will oil prices remain elevated for longer?
Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, noted that global equity markets are starting to reflect a scenario where both oil prices and interest rates stay “higher-for-longer,” given the increasing risk of a protracted conflict.
He warned that a continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could deepen market downturns and elevate recessionary risks. The prevailing uncertainty surrounding the conflict, including the potential for increased U.S. involvement, is likely to maintain high volatility until oil flows stabilize.
“The swiftness and scale of this shift highlight how rapidly energy markets are repricing geopolitical risk, challenging prior attempts to anchor both oil and bond markets, and reinforcing the threat of sustained disruption in the Strait,” Yardeni stated in a note released Monday.
David Roche, a strategist at Quantum Strategy, observed that markets are increasingly factoring in a more aggressive U.S. response. This includes the possibility of direct military involvement (“boots on the ground”) and an operation to seize Iran’s primary oil export hub at Kharg Island, responsible for approximately 90% of the country’s oil exports.
Such a move, he cautioned, would effectively cut off Iran’s dollar revenues but risks triggering a full-scale escalation, with Tehran likely to retaliate by targeting critical infrastructure across the Gulf region.
This escalation could swiftly impact global supply chains. Roche highlighted the vulnerability of Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, which transports about 5 million barrels per day to the Red Sea, warning that any disruption at the Bab al-Mandeb chokepoint—where Yemen’s Houthis operate—could severely curtail exports.
He added that even if alternative routes via the Suez Canal were used, capacity would be significantly diminished, potentially removing 4 to 5 million barrels per day from the market.
— Contributions to this report were provided by Azhar Sukri & Anniek Bao of CNBC.