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Jay Bilas
Multiple Authors
The routine is a familiar one. After my esteemed colleagues and I conclude our coverage of the SEC championship game in Nashville, Tennessee, we promptly shift our focus to analyzing the men’s NCAA tournament bracket as it is unveiled. Our executives at ESPN mandate that each of us complete a bracket – live on air – so we can present our selections before the broadcast concludes.
They allocate less than five minutes for this task. Far from ideal, but perhaps our initial gut reactions prove more effective than prolonged deliberation. I’ve decided to grant you more than five minutes to deliberate, empowering you to impress your friends, emerge victorious in your office pool, and perhaps even conquer our Tournament Challenge.
Last season, my bracket leaned heavily on favorites: I correctly predicted all four No. 1 seeds would reach the Final Four, with Houston and Florida battling for the championship, and the Gators ultimately securing the title. The criticism was immediate and intense. I was chastised for failing to include an underdog in San Antonio. Yet, when the tournament concluded, all four top seeds were indeed in the Final Four, and the Cougars and Gators faced off for the title. Consider it my gift to you – and I extend my forgiveness to all who doubted.
This season, however, presents a different landscape. Cinderella seems to have taken a sabbatical. The elite teams aren’t as decisively superior to the rest of the field, suggesting a tournament ripe for more surprises. While selecting numerous upsets might bring a fleeting sense of satisfaction when filling out your bracket, achieving victory through strategic choices is far more rewarding. Opt for upsets only when you possess strong conviction, particularly those where you anticipate the victor will falter in the subsequent round. This approach offers the benefit of early-round upsets while mitigating risk if Cinderella’s journey ends prematurely.
Presented below are my educated predictions for the bracket. Exercise your own discretion. And always remember: the essence of this is enjoyment.
EAST REGION
First round
No. 1 Duke Blue Devils vs. No. 16 Siena Saints
The 1 vs. 16 seed pairing has witnessed two astounding upsets: UMBC’s triumph over Virginia in 2018, and FDU’s victory against Purdue in 2023. However, these two wins since the tournament expanded in 1985 represent long odds for Siena. As a general principle, favor the No. 1 seed. This contest features a fascinating coaching duel between Jon Scheyer and Gerry McNamara, both of whom won national championships as players. The decisive factor? Duke’s roster includes Cameron Boozer.
Winner: Duke
No. 8 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 9 TCU Horned Frogs
The Buckeyes are anchored by Bruce Thornton, Ohio State’s all-time leading scorer and a nationally recognized talent. TCU counters with David Punch, who posted a season-high 26 points against Oklahoma State in this week’s Big 12 quarterfinals. This Horned Frogs squad is quietly formidable, having defeated Florida earlier in the season. The 8-9 matchup is typically a toss-up, but I’m leaning towards TCU.
Winner: TCU
No. 5 St. John’s Red Storm vs. No. 12 Northern Iowa Panthers
An upset alert often hovers over the 5 vs. 12 game, but St. John’s possesses too much strength – and Rick Pitino rarely loses first-round contests. The Red Storm are arguably underseeded. Choose the Johnnies.
Winner: St. John’s
No. 4 Kansas Jayhawks vs. No. 13 California Baptist Lancers
Kansas delivered a subpar performance in their Big 12 tournament loss to Houston, scoring a season-low 47 points. Nonetheless, their rim protection from Flory Bidunga should ensure a victory in this game.
Winner: Kansas
No. 6 Louisville Cardinals vs. No. 11 South Florida Bulls
One certainty in this game is an abundance of long rebounds, as both teams frequently attempt 3-pointers. This presents a prime upset opportunity: Mikel Brown Jr. has been sidelined with a back injury, and South Florida is a resilient squad. It’s worth risking a pick on this one because Michigan State is likely to defeat either team in the next round.
Winner: South Florida
No. 3 Michigan State Spartans vs. No. 14 North Dakota State Bison
The basketball calendar often goes: January, February, Tom Izzo. Select the Spartans.
Winner: Michigan State
No. 7 UCLA Bruins vs. No. 10 UCF Knights
The Bruins feature Donovan Dent, among the top five point guards nationally, but UCF boasts Themus Fulks, Jordan Burks, and the Big 12’s equivalent of Draymond Green in Jamichael Stillwell. With UCLA battling injuries, the Knights are a compelling long-shot choice.
Winner: UCF
No. 2 UConn Huskies vs. No. 15 Furman Paladins
Despite the Huskies not achieving the dominance many anticipated this season, they remain a very strong team. Furman’s Alex Wilkins has distinguished himself as one of the country’s premier freshmen, but UConn’s formidable interior play should be the deciding factor.
Winner: UConn
Second round
No. 1 Duke vs. No. 9 TCU
Even with injuries, Duke should prevail, although TCU promises to be a formidable opponent. Could the Blue Devils suffer a defeat? Indeed. Nevertheless, select them – many brackets will be derailed early, so your subsequent choices will be crucial.
Winner: Duke
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No. 4 Kansas vs. No. 5 St. John’s
While Kansas possesses the capability to defeat any team, they are equally susceptible to losing to nearly anyone. And St. John’s is certainly not just any opponent.
Winner: St. John’s
No. 3 Michigan State vs. No. 11 South Florida
As previously established, I have confidence in Michigan State during March. Jeremy Fears Jr. is the crucial factor, entering the tournament with a hot hand after scoring over 20 points in each of his last four games.
Winner: Michigan State
No. 2 UConn vs. No. 10 UCF
I don’t envision UConn as a Final Four contender this year, but they are certainly a team capable of reaching the second weekend of the tournament.
Winner: UConn
Sweet 16
No. 1 Duke vs. No. 5 St. John’s
The outcome of this game will hinge on Duke’s health. If Patrick Ngongba II is fully fit, the Blue Devils will win. If not, Duke’s potential is diminished, and the Johnnies are absolutely capable of securing a victory. Nonetheless, unless you’re an alumnus of St. John’s, I recommend picking Duke here.
Winner: Duke
No. 2 UConn vs. No. 3 Michigan State
Both teams are seasoned and deserving of an Elite Eight berth. However, the Huskies enter the tournament cold after a recent loss to Marquette in their regular-season finale, followed by a dominant defeat by St. John’s in the Big East final. I favor Michigan State’s bracket path and the tenacity the Spartans consistently display – they’ve defeated No. 5 Illinois and No. 8 Purdue in the last six weeks, and fiercely competed against Michigan twice.
Winner: Michigan State
Elite Eight
No. 1 Duke vs. No. 3 Michigan State
These two teams met earlier this season in East Lansing, with Duke securing a 66-60 victory. Michigan State has an excellent opportunity to avenge that loss. While the Blue Devils might win a seven-game series, this is a single-elimination contest. Back the Spartans.
Winner: Michigan State
SOUTH REGION
First round
No. 1 Florida Gators vs. No. 16 Prairie View A&M / Lehigh Mountain Hawks
Florida’s formidable size and strength in the paint make an upset here highly improbable. Choose the Gators. Chomp, chomp.
Winner: Florida
No. 8 Clemson Tigers vs. No. 9 Iowa Hawkeyes
The Tigers are large and well-coached, but the Hawkeyes possess Bennett Stirtz, one of college basketball’s premier shot-makers, who averages 20.2 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 5.1 assists. Pick Iowa. Regardless, neither team is expected to overcome Florida in the next round.
Winner: Iowa
No. 5 Vanderbilt Commodores vs. No. 12 McNeese Cowboys
This 5 vs. 12 matchup consistently features as a popular upset selection – and indeed, No. 12 McNeese defeated Clemson last year. However, in this particular instance, Vanderbilt’s guards, Tyler Tanner and Duke Miles, are simply too talented for a Cowboys upset. Choose Vandy.
Winner: Vanderbilt
No. 4 Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. No. 13 Troy Trojans
The Trojans secured a victory at San Diego State and pushed USC to triple overtime. Troy is clearly a capable team. And while Nebraska has never achieved an NCAA tournament win, this year marks the end of that drought.
Winner: Nebraska
No. 6 North Carolina Tar Heels vs. No. 11 VCU Rams
This is a perilous game for the Tar Heels. Without Caleb Wilson, their potential ceiling is considerably lower. North Carolina is the superior team and should win, but VCU presents a legitimate upset possibility here.
Winner: North Carolina
No. 3 Illinois Fighting Illini vs. No. 14 Pennsylvania Quakers
The Quakers boast TJ Power, who delivered a magnificent 44-point performance against Yale. However, this Illinois team is exceptionally talented, particularly on offense – and to underscore that, the Illini’s freshman sensation, Keaton Wagler, surpassed that feat with 46 points against Purdue in January. Illinois secures the win.
Winner: Illinois
No. 7 Saint Mary’s Gaels vs. No. 10 Texas A&M Aggies
What a stark contrast in playing styles. Texas A&M, under Bucky McMillan, thrives on a fast-paced game; the Aggies aim to press and create disruptions. Yet, Saint Mary’s will pose a significant challenge. While it might seem counterintuitive to label a Saint Mary’s victory here as a standard pick, the Gaels are adept at dictating a slower tempo.
Winner: Saint Mary’s
No. 2 Houston Cougars vs. No. 15 Idaho Vandals
The Cougars feature Kingston Flemings, one of the nation’s top freshmen and a certain lottery pick. Houston’s defense is simply too formidable for an upset selection in this contest.
Winner: Houston
Second round
No. 1 Florida vs. No. 9 Iowa
Florida boasts arguably the nation’s premier frontcourt, highlighted by Thomas Haugh (a potential SEC Player of the Year), elite defender Rueben Chinyelu, and Alex Condon. Size is a critical advantage. While a strong performance from Stirtz could certainly propel Iowa to victory, I lean towards Florida.
Winner: Florida
No. 4 Nebraska vs. No. 5 Vanderbilt
This promises to be an outstanding matchup. Nebraska is capable of defeating nearly any opponent, but Vanderbilt’s guards will be the difference-maker. It’s a tight decision, but I’m picking Duke Miles’ Commodores. His midcourt steal with his left hand against Arkansas in Sunday’s SEC final was, in my opinion, one of the best thefts of the season. He’s genuinely impactful.
Winner: Vanderbilt
No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 6 North Carolina
Illinois possesses the ability to create significant difficulties for North Carolina, which will be heavily relying on Henri Veesaar (16.7 points per game) in Wilson’s absence. With Wagler spearheading a group of five Illini players averaging double figures, Illinois simply has too many scoring options.
Winner: Illinois
No. 2 Houston vs. No. 7 Saint Mary’s
Houston is adept at playing both fast and slow-paced games, capable of matching Saint Mary’s physical, deliberate tempo. The Gaels could certainly win, especially if the Cougars struggle with their shooting, but I favor Houston.
Winner: Houston
Sweet 16
No. 1 Florida vs. No. 5 Vanderbilt
In a repeat of the SEC tournament semifinals, Florida will enter this matchup with added motivation. The Gators committed too many turnovers in that previous game against Vanderbilt’s aggressive pressure and steal-prone guards, Tyler Tanner and Duke Miles. Despite the Commodores’ backcourt talent, Florida’s size and strength provide an advantage. Vandy will score, but Florida will be seeking redemption.
Winner: Florida
0:41
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No. 2 Houston vs. No. 3 Illinois
Illinois boasts the superior offense, while Houston possesses the stronger defense. I’m leaning towards offense in this one, though it’s an agonizing choice. Pick the Illini, but be aware that the Cougars are fully capable of winning.
Winner: Illinois
Elite Eight
No. 1 Florida vs. No. 3 Illinois
Illinois features stronger guards in Keaton Wagler and Kylan Boswell. Florida, however, holds an advantage in interior play and rebounding. This time, I’m selecting Florida.
Winner: Florida
WEST REGION
First round
No. 1 Arizona Wildcats vs. No. 16 Long Island University Sharks
The Sharks are led by Rod Strickland, one of college hoops’ most legendary point guards, but he won’t be playing in this contest. Arizona’s talent level is simply too high, and remember: 16-seeds win less than 1% of the time.
Winner: Arizona
No. 8 Villanova Wildcats vs. No. 9 Utah State Aggies
There’s no such thing as a true upset in an 8-9 game, but a Utah State victory might feel like one. Mason Falslev, the Mountain West Player of the Year, and MJ Collins Jr., a skilled 3-point shooter, lead the Aggies. This is a coin flip, but I’m choosing Utah State. Either team, however, is likely to fall to Arizona in the subsequent round.
Winner: Utah State
No. 5 Wisconsin Badgers vs. No. 12 High Point Panthers
High Point is a prolific scoring team that has enjoyed an excellent season, but Wisconsin is my pick here. The Badgers feature very capable guards in Nick Boyd and John Blackwell – in fact, this team could pose a challenging matchup for Arizona later in the tournament.
Winner: Wisconsin
No. 4 Arkansas Razorbacks vs. No. 13 Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors
The Rainbow Warriors are adept at slowing the game down against the Razorbacks, but Arkansas freshman Darius Acuff Jr. possesses the kind of talent that can propel a team to the Final Four. This is a tempting upset opportunity, but I’m sticking with Arkansas.
Winner: Arkansas
No. 6 BYU Cougars vs. No. 11 Texas Longhorns/NC State Wolfpack
I anticipate Texas defeating NC State due to the Longhorns’ size and strong guard and wing play. BYU features the nation’s leading scorer in AJ Dybantsa, but the Cougars can struggle for offensive production beyond him and Robert Wright III. BYU isn’t the same team it was earlier in the year, and I believe their seed reflects their earlier form rather than their current state. I’m taking a risk on Texas here.
Winner: Texas
No. 3 Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. No. 14 Kennesaw State Owls
History is on Gonzaga’s side – the Bulldogs haven’t been eliminated before the second round since 2008. Coach Mark Few consistently guides his team to the Sweet 16.
Winner: Gonzaga
No. 7 Miami Hurricanes vs. No. 10 Missouri Tigers
Miami has had a remarkable season – no team improved more significantly year-over-year than the Hurricanes, adding 18 more wins – but I favor Missouri in this contest, led by Mark Mitchell’s 18.3 points per game. This is a coin-flip scenario, so embrace the upset pick.
Winner: Missouri
No. 2 Purdue Boilermakers vs. No. 15 Queens University Royals
Queens, making its inaugural NCAA tournament appearance, features six players averaging double-digit scoring. However, Purdue, fresh off a Big Ten title and a decisive win in their rematch against Michigan in the final, is finally performing like the team envisioned at the season’s outset. Braden Smith stands as the nation’s premier point guard. Purdue will win.
Winner: Purdue
Second round
No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 9 Utah State
Whether facing Villanova or Utah State, Arizona possesses too much size and talent to be eliminated before the second weekend. The Wildcats have secured four victories against top-10 opponents in just the past month and appear to be gaining momentum, having not lost since February 14. Utah State will be a tough out, but Arizona will advance.
Winner: Arizona
No. 4 Arkansas vs. No. 5 Wisconsin
Wisconsin’s proficient shooting big men can create significant challenges for Arkansas – in fact, I believe the Badgers would pose a tough test for Arizona if they reach the second weekend. They are capable of unleashing 15 three-pointers in a game, as they demonstrated against Michigan. However, the Razorbacks possess Darius Acuff Jr., and no other team does.
Winner: Arkansas
No. 3 Gonzaga vs. No. 11 Texas The Zags are competing without Braden Huff, whose 17.8 points and 5.6 rebounds per game impact both their offense and defense. Gonzaga is the superior team, but consider taking a risk here. Texas is a deceptive 11-seed due to its size, Dailyn Swain’s scoring prowess, and Sean Miller’s coaching acumen. Winner: Texas No. 2 Purdue vs. No. 10 Missouri The Boilermakers might give you pause, but they have a favorable draw, and Braden Smith is the decisive factor. He averages 9.0 assists per game (second nationally) and is shooting at the highest efficiency of his career. Winner: Purdue No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 4 Arkansas Darius Acuff Jr., meet Koa Peat. This matchup would feature two of the nation’s premier freshmen, both projected as first-round NBA draft talents. Acuff is the more prominent star; he possesses a gravitational pull that draws defenders, allowing him to distribute the ball. However, Arizona boasts more overall talent, and the Wildcats will navigate this challenging encounter. Winner: Arizona No. 2 Purdue vs. No. 11 Texas The Longhorns possess size and talent, but Purdue will ultimately triumph in this game. Winner: Purdue No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 2 Purdue While Arizona is quite young in key positions, they are simply larger and more talented. Purdue is more experienced and will not be intimidated by Arizona. Nevertheless, I have strong confidence in the Wildcats here. Winner: Arizona No. 1 Michigan Wolverines vs. No. 16 UMBC Retrievers/Howard Bison Michigan lost L.J. Cason for the season several weeks ago, a setback that undoubtedly impacts the Wolverines’ overall trajectory. However, not yet. Again: 16-seeds are generally poor bracket choices. Even if the nearly impossible occurs, the 16-seed is highly likely to lose its subsequent game. Winner: Michigan No. 8 Georgia Bulldogs vs. No. 9 Saint Louis Billikens Saint Louis is known for seeking out excellent shots and executing a beautifully designed offense. Georgia, however, boasts superior athletes – sophomore Jeremiah Wilkinson averages 17.0 points per game – and can defeat Saint Louis in transition. Winner: Georgia No. 5 Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. No. 12 Akron Zips An argument could be made that Akron presented a stronger resume than Miami (Ohio) – and perhaps was even the better team, despite Miami winning their lone head-to-head encounter. The Zips are legitimate contenders and will be a tough out. But if Christian Anderson is healthy and can consistently find Donovan Atwell, one of America’s finest shooters, for open looks, Texas Tech will claim this victory. Winner: Texas Tech No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 13 Hofstra Pride The Crimson Tide will feature the most impactful player on the court in Labaron Philon Jr. (21.7 PPG), who delivered 28 points on 56% shooting in the SEC quarterfinal loss to Ole Miss. Winner: Alabama No. 6 Tennessee Volunteers vs. No. 11 Miami (Ohio) RedHawks/SMU Mustangs Miami (Ohio) is quite good. So is SMU – and the Mustangs are finally regaining their health and possess superior talent, which is a significant factor. I’m picking SMU in the First Four, but neither team will overcome Tennessee in the first round. Ja’Kobi Gillespie has proven to be an excellent addition to the Volunteers, and as long as they maintain the defensive intensity typical of coach Rick Barnes’ teams, I believe they will advance past either opponent. Winner: Tennessee No. 3 Virginia Cavaliers vs. No. 14 Wright State Raiders Virginia is an underrated squad and a highly effective defensive team, conceding merely 68.4 points per game (ranking in the top-50 nationally, fourth in the ACC). The Wahoos will send Wright State home early, propelled by the standout freshman forward from Belgium, Thijs De Ridder. Winner: Virginia No. 7 Kentucky Wildcats vs. No. 10 Santa Clara Broncos Kentucky is dealing with injuries and inconsistent play, while Santa Clara is a big, skilled team with positional size across almost every spot. To be clear: Kentucky could very well be upset here. However, I’m picking the Wildcats, assuming Otega Oweh delivers another strong performance. Winner: Kentucky No. 2 Iowa State Cyclones vs. No. 15 Tennessee State Tigers The Cyclones rank among the nation’s elite defensive teams, consistently generating nearly 20 points per game from turnovers. The only potential concern here is Iowa State’s erratic free-throw shooting. Every other aspect of their game is of Final Four caliber. Winner: Iowa State No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 8 Georgia The Bulldogs have faced and defeated some formidable teams, but none as strong as Michigan. Yaxel Lendeborg is a genuine star, one of the country’s best two-way players. He and the Wolverines will not be defeated here. Winner: Michigan No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 5 Texas Tech The Crimson Tide don’t consistently play at the highest defensive level, but they are exceptional shooters. Philon is a standout, as are Latrell Wrightsell and Amare Allen. They possess a multitude of players capable of scoring. The shot-making prowess of this Alabama team will lead them to victory. Winner: Alabama No. 3 Virginia vs. No. 6 Tennessee Virginia excels at protecting the paint and the 3-point line, but Tennessee is a physical team that relentlessly attacks the offensive glass. The Vols are significantly better with Nate Ament in the lineup, who returned for the SEC tournament. If he can perform near his season averages of 17.5 points and 6.6 rebounds per game, complementing Gillespie’s talent, they should secure the win. Winner: Tennessee No. 2 Iowa State vs. No. 7 Kentucky Kentucky is battling injuries and displaying some wear. Iowa State features Joshua Jefferson, one of the game’s most versatile and talented point forwards, who is achieving career highs as a sophomore in points (16.9), rebounds (7.6), and assists (4.9). Advance Iowa State. Winner: Iowa State No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 4 Alabama I consider Michigan to be the strongest team in this region, but if I were the Wolverines, Alabama would be the opponent I’d least want to face. If Alabama connects on its shots, the Crimson Tide can defeat Michigan. In fact, if Alabama is hitting its shots, the Crimson Tide can defeat *anyone*. That said, I’m siding with Lendeborg. Advance Michigan in your bracket; I’ve already done so in mine. Winner: Michigan No. 2 Iowa State vs. No. 6 Tennessee Coach Rick Barnes’ Volunteers are consistently defensive stalwarts, but here, they encounter their match. The Cyclones are among the top five defensive teams in the nation. If they can force Tennessee into turnovers – the Vols have struggled with ball security lately – they will secure this victory. Iowa State is truly formidable. Winner: Iowa State No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 2 Iowa State If L.J. Cason were available, I would confidently pick Michigan in this contest. However, Iowa State’s defensive prowess is simply too overwhelming. The Cyclones are the strongest team in this region, and they will get the job done here. Winner: Iowa State No. 3 Michigan State vs. No. 1 Florida Gators This promises to be an excellent clash, pitting Florida’s exceptional frontcourt against Michigan State’s top-10 defense. Izzo hasn’t reached the national championship game since his squad won it all in 2000 – that changes this year. Winner: Michigan State No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 2 Iowa State Arizona hasn’t advanced to the Final Four since 2001, but coach Tommy Lloyd will not be satisfied with merely reaching this stage. This Arizona team possesses the quality to contend for a national title, and they will overcome Iowa State. Winner: Arizona No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 3 Michigan State In this contest of long-standing droughts, the West will emerge victorious: Arizona clinches its first championship in nearly two decades. Winner: Arizona
Sweet 16
Elite Eight
MIDWEST REGION
First round
Second round
Sweet 16
Elite Eight
FINAL FOUR
National Championship