On June 15, 2025, the Memphis Grizzlies finalized a trade sending Desmond Bane to the Orlando Magic. In return, Memphis acquired four unprotected first-round picks (2025 – Yang Hansen, 2026, 2028, and 2030), a first-round pick swap in 2027, along with players Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Cole Anthony. Orlando’s 2026 draft selection is slated to be the 16th overall pick.
Simply put, it will be incredibly challenging to select a player superior to Bane using this particular pick.
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Excluding his injury-affected 2023-24 season and his rookie campaign, Bane has consistently ranked around 41st in the NBA for Basketball Reference win shares. In the 2025-26 season, he achieved a career-best 7.4 win shares, placing him 27th overall, which firmly positions him within the league’s top 10 percent of players.
Typically, NBA draft classes yield approximately three to five All-Stars. Historically strong classes, such as those from 1984, 1996, and 2003, have produced as many as nine or 10.
While Bane isn’t quite an All-Star, his status in the top 10 percent of players suggests that a standard draft class typically includes about six to eight top-50 caliber talents, aligning with the 3-5 All-Star projection. Given 60 players are drafted annually, six out of 60 uphold this 10 percent proportion.
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The 2026 draft class is highly anticipated, potentially being a historic one, with standout prospects like AJ Dybantsa from BYU, Darryn Peterson from Kansas, and Cameron Boozer from Duke leading the way. The class also boasts significant depth, featuring projected first-round talents such as one-and-done freshmen Caleb Wilson (North Carolina), Darius Acuff Jr. (Arkansas), Kingston Flemings (Houston), and Keaton Wagler (Illinois).
On April 4, 2026, in Indianapolis, IN, Illinois Fighting Illini guard Keaton Wagler (23) handles the ball against UConn Huskies guard Silas Demary Jr. (2) during the second half of a 2026 NCAA Tournament Final Four semifinal at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images | Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images
In a draft class expected to yield a higher-than-average number of talented players, Memphis would likely need a top-eight pick to acquire a player superior to Bane. Such an outcome is more probable with their own lottery selection than with Orlando’s pick. Nevertheless, even with a later pick in this strong class, there remains a chance to discover a quality player.
Jeremy Woo’s most recent mock draft for ESPN projects the Grizzlies to select Washington freshman Hannes Steinbach with the 16th overall pick. Similarly, Danny Chau’s mock draft for The Ringer also places Steinbach with Memphis at the 16th spot.
In Chicago, IL, on March 11, 2026, Washington Huskies forward Hannes Steinbach (6) looks for a pass against Southern California Trojans forward Ezra Ausar (2) during the second half at United Center. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images | Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images
Despite Hannes Steinbach’s impressive statistics—averaging 18.5 points and 11.8 rebounds per game—scouts hold differing opinions on his potential. A primary concern revolves around his positional versatility, as he’s seen as a ‘tweener’ between power forward and center, lacking consistent reliability as a defensive anchor.
In Indianapolis, IN, on April 4, 2026, Michigan Wolverines center Aday Mara (15) and forward Yaxel Lendeborg (23) react during the second half of a 2026 NCAA Tournament Final Four semifinal at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images Revisiting the goal of a top-eight pick, both ESPN and The Ringer concur on nine names in their top 10 rankings: Dybantsa, Peterson, Boozer, Wilson, Acuff, Flemings, Wagler, Arizona freshman Brayden Burries, and Louisville freshman Mikel Brown Jr. While it’s improbable that all nine will emerge as the class’s elite, this consistency indicates that Memphis’s pick from Orlando will not originate from the top two or three tiers of available prospects. The likelihood of General Manager Zach Kleiman drafting a player superior to Bane with this second first-round pick is slim. On April 27, 2026, in Orlando, Florida, Orlando Magic guard Desmond Bane (3) attempts a shot during the second half of Game 4 of the first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs against the Detroit Pistons at Kia Center. Mandatory Credit: Mike Watters-Imagn Images | Mike Watters-Imagn Images However, the Grizzlies’ trade of Bane wasn’t aimed at directly replacing him. Instead, the decision was driven by salary cap and apron management considerations, the comprehensive package of assets offered by Orlando, and the evaluation of Bane’s contract value given Memphis’s existing roster. Despite Bane’s skill, a five-year, $197 million deal for what would be a third offensive option was deemed a substantial financial commitment. Therefore, shedding that contract while securing the valuable return from Memphis made strategic sense. Advertisement Regardless of whether the Grizzlies find a gem with Orlando’s specific pick, the team still possesses an additional unprotected first-rounder and a future pick swap. This selection is merely one element within a much broader strategic framework. This content was initially published on www.si.com/nba/grizzlies/onsi under the title The odds Memphis upgrades from Desmond Bane with Orlando’s pick.
