For three decades, California Democrats haven’t faced an unconstrained contest for the governorship, a role recognized as one of the most prominent and powerful in the United States. However, rather than embracing the spirited competition of numerous contenders, party strategists are concerned that the battle to succeed Gavin Newsom might backfire dramatically.
Last Tuesday, Rusty Hicks, the chair of the state’s Democratic party, penned an unprecedented open letter to the candidates, stating: “If you lack a plausible route to reach the general election, refrain from submitting your name for the primary ballot.”
With no clear leader emerging and barely three months until the 2 June primary, Democrats fear that their nine candidates vying for the state’s highest office could end up sabotaging each other. This, combined with an unusual state primary system that advances the top two vote-getters regardless of party affiliation, raises the possibility of two Republicans moving on to the general election in November.
Even in favorable circumstances, such an outcome would be difficult to accept, given California’s status as a Democratic stronghold and the nation’s wealthiest and most populated state. However, with Donald Trump occupying the White House and Democrats intensely focused on regaining control of Congress from his Republican allies, losing California would be nothing short of a disaster.
“Our nation faces immense stakes, and many depend on the leadership of California Democrats to take a stand and speak out at this pivotal historical moment,” Hicks articulated in his letter. “We each bear a responsibility to act judiciously.”
Hicks, along with political analysts from both parties, views the chance of two Republican candidates in November as slim, considering Democrats hold a considerable advantage in voter registration. Nevertheless, concern over this possibility has been growing since two recent polls indicated a Republican, British-born political consultant Steve Hilton, leading the field, with another Republican, Riverside county sheriff Chad Bianco, ranking a close third.
Several Democrats are also performing strongly: former congresswoman Katie Porter, who previously mounted an unsuccessful Senate bid; progressive billionaire Tom Steyer, who has invested over $60 million of his own funds into the campaign; and incumbent congressman Eric Swalwell, a late entrant who saw an opportunity after Kamala Harris, the Democrat who lost the 2024 presidential election to Trump, declared she would not run.
Despite this, none of these three candidates shows signs of definitively pulling ahead, and party support remains fractured among the remaining contenders. The most recent Emerson College poll shows the top five candidates separated by eight percentage points, while a Public Policy Institute of California survey places them within just four points of each other.
Without California, Democrats would forfeit one of the primary checks on Trump’s agenda. Worse, Hicks cautioned, if two Republicans were to compete for governor in November, it could severely suppress Democratic turnout, potentially causing congressional seats currently considered reliably blue to shift red.
“We absolutely must ensure we don’t undermine ourselves,” stated Ken Martin, the party’s national chair, in an interview. He and other party officials have been pressuring less viable candidates to withdraw, a push that began at least since the state party convention in San Francisco ten days prior.
However, candidates whose polling numbers are lower do not necessarily concede their unviability—not yet, at least—and have proven difficult to persuade otherwise as Friday’s deadline for filing to appear on the primary ballot approaches.
Adding to the complexity is the fact that these lower-ranking candidates include several prominent, well-known figures with extensive backgrounds in elected office, such as former state attorney general Xavier Becerra, former Los Angeles mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, and former state controller Betty Yee.
Delegates at last month’s state convention did little to clarify the field, failing to endorse a single candidate. In a subsequent vote, they placed Yee and Becerra second and third behind Swalwell, despite neither candidate gaining significant traction with voters.
Meanwhile, San Jose mayor Matt Mahan, a relatively new face, is building momentum. He stands almost alone among Democratic contenders as a centrist and an outspoken critic of Newsom’s public disagreements with the White House. Mahan generally faces distrust from organized labor, a vital force in the state’s Democratic politics, but benefits from substantial financial backing from Silicon Valley.
His campaign’s reply to Hicks was direct: “Voters, not political gatekeepers, select the next governor.”
Garry South, a political consultant who worked on the last truly competitive Democratic primary for governor in 1998, highlighted three significant endorsements that could reshape the race: from the California Labor Federation and the Service Employees International Union, both instrumental in mobilizing unionized workers and encouraging voter turnout, and from former House speaker Nancy Pelosi, whose continued influence and fundraising prowess were crucial in propelling Adam Schiff, not Porter, to the Senate in 2024.
“I’m unsure if they will unite behind a single candidate,” South remarked, “but it’s quite clear that powerful forces are still waiting to engage.”
According to party insiders, Swalwell appears to be in the strongest position to secure these endorsements. However, even with a fragmented field, South expressed confidence that primary voters themselves would eventually abandon low-polling candidates to avoid wasting their votes. He concluded, “That dynamic alone makes the likelihood of two Republican candidates in the general election improbable.”
For its part, the California Labor Federation not only anticipates issuing an endorsement soon but also plans to leverage its influence to pressure lower-polling candidates. “We must begin some difficult conversations with certain good friends about their viability,” Lorena Gonzalez, the federation’s president, stated in an interview.
For several months, Democrats across various levels have voiced apprehension regarding both the caliber and number of candidates. Porter alienated many colleagues by resigning her House seat to pursue higher office in 2024, and since then has struggled to maintain her image as a forthright, populist speaker. Furthermore, a pair of viral videos showing her losing composure with a staffer and a CBS reporter have provoked questions about her temperament and judgment.
Swalwell hasn’t quite lived up to expectations that he would become the necessary frontrunner after entering the race in November, and has since faced criticism for an unusually high number of missed votes in Congress. Mahan, perceiving both an opportunity and a desire among voters for a candidate who resists the party’s shift toward the populist left, declared his candidacy just last month after openly expressing his disappointment with the quality of the other contenders.
South noted that one issue was the disproportionately large number of former office-holders compared to currently elected officials. He explained that this creates a significant problem for voter perception, partly because California law prohibits candidates from listing old job titles in their brief ballot descriptions. “It’s contributing to why this race is so unpredictable,” he commented.
Many party insiders are still cautiously betting on Swalwell, who participated in Trump’s two impeachments during his initial presidential term and can credibly distance himself from California’s major challenges—such as the high cost of living, a swelling state budget that faces a considerable deficit, housing shortages, and homelessness—given his 13 years spent in Congress rather than state government.
At a candidates’ debate held in Los Angeles last week, Swalwell characterized California as “a blue state burdened by bureaucracy” and pledged to concentrate relentlessly on boosting revenue without imposing additional financial strain on middle and low-income taxpayers.
Steyer has carved out a place in the discussion through a constant barrage of television and online advertisements, and by taking the unique stance as a billionaire who advocates for higher taxes on his own class. “Ultimately, I will consistently side with supporting working families,” he recently wrote, “and if that means billionaires like me paying more taxes, then so be it.”
In a state that may feel weary of the status quo after 16 years of single-party governance but is distinctly uninterested in Trump’s anti-establishment brand of politics, Steyer presents an intriguing option. “California has a historical affinity for individuals from outside the political establishment, a trend that goes back to Ronald Reagan, if not further,” observed Elizabeth Ashford, a political consultant who has collaborated with governors from both major parties.
However, Steyer’s considerable wealth might also impede his progress, especially at a time when billionaires frequently evoke disdain rather than admiration, particularly among progressive voters and union leaders. California has a track record of rejecting self-funded candidates who outspend their rivals, including Meg Whitman, the former eBay CEO who ran for governor in 2010, and Al Checchi, a Democratic businessman who campaigned and lost in 1998.
South mentioned that Steyer’s aggressive advertising campaign brought to mind Checchi, who was similarly persistent when competing against South’s ultimately victorious client at the time, Gray Davis. “Two to three months before the primary, we were conducting a focus group, and one of Checchi’s ads appeared,” he recalled. “The sentiment was, oh no, not that guy again, I’m so tired of seeing him. Steyer is likely to face the same issue – he’s exhausting the electorate.”
Steyer’s campaign, however, argues that unlike Checchi, he possesses a long history of advocating for progressive causes such as labor rights, environmental protection, and access to healthcare, achieved not as an elected official but through California’s ballot initiative process. This, in turn, makes them optimistic that he can connect with key demographic groups, including young people and Latinos. “Tom’s entire campaign,” stated spokesperson Kevin Liao, “is centered on tackling the challenge that Californians can no longer afford to live in California. That message is deeply resonating with voters.”